File No. 812.00/7652.
The American Ambassador to the Secretary of State.
Mexico, May 15, 1913.
My Dear Mr. Bryan: Since my despatch of March 12, 1913, which aimed to cover in the fullest detail the events of the recent revolutionary uprising which led to the installation of the present Huerta Government, events have crowded so thick and fast that an intelligent analysis of the situation has been difficult if not impossible. I have, therefore, confined my reports to brief telegraphic narratives of the most conspicuous and urgent matters, hoping from day to day that the situation might become more clearly defined and that I might be able to put in the hands of the Department such a comprehensive and thorough statement as would be of value for its guidance. Even now I do not feel that the situation is clear enough to warrant decisive conclusions either of a pessimistic or optimistic character, and I must beg you to accept such views as I may, from time to time, present to the Department as more or less tentative.
The present Provisional Government, which came into power with the apparent enthusiastic approval of all classes of Mexicans and which displayed in the earlier stages of its incumbency marked activity, [Page 802] great sagacity, and a broad and conciliatory spirit, has not entirely fulfilled the hopes of all those who anxiously desire the restoration of peace and order throughout Mexico, nor has it given, under prolonged tests, those evidences of administrative ability which it revealed in the first moments of its existence and which I then believed would enable it to triumph over all difficulties. In no inconsiderable measure the failure by the present provisional administration to secure better results is due to the lamentable condition in which the finances of the country were left by the Madero administration. The public credit had been greatly injured and the national prestige greatly lowered by the peculiar methods of that administration and its inability or disinclination promptly to fulfill its international obligations. In addition to this the public treasury had undoubtedly been looted by the vast horde of greedy adventurers who surrounded Madero, controlled his councils, and led him into the commission not only of financial blunders but of serious attacks on the constitutional rights of the people. Thus, the new administration was confronted at the time of taking office with, a grave economic situation, with a disordered administrative system, with a hostile legislative majority, and with an army which had been reduced to diminutive proportions and demoralized in discipline and morale. Moreover, the vast extent of territory over which it has been compelled to assert its authority against the violent and destructive spirits which were loosed by the Madero administration and which are now being encouraged by secret agents in the United States and in every part of this Republic to revolt against the Provisional Government has made the task of restoring peace enormously difficult and is impressing both native and foreign opinion with the belief that the restoration of normal conditions will be well-nigh impossible for any government to procure.
In one direction the Government has shown commendable energy which may possibly produce good results in the early future. It has moved with great activity in the reorganization of the army, and has enlisted by one process and another somewhere between 15,000 and 20,000 soldiers during the past month. These are being dispatched rapidly to the disturbed sections of the country and the administration confidently relies upon their ability to destroy the forces now in arms against the Government.
With reference to the disturbances which exist throughout the country the situation is about as follows: [Military situation described.]
The phase of the entire situation in Mexico which is being commented on now most extensively by foreign and native opinion and which is a matter of lively concern to the present Government is that resulting from an apparent collusion between a more or less clearly defined interventionist organization in the United States and the State authorities on the American side of the border. This organization, according to reports which have been received here, is contributing moral and material support to the revolutionary cause and is conducting a campaign in conjunction [with] or with the aid of representatives of the Madero political party now in refuge in the United States with the primary object of forming an independent republic from Mexican territory contiguous to the border and reaching as far south as the twenty-sixth parallel. This would embrace [Page 803] Lower California, the States of Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, and parts of the States of Nuevo Leon, Durango, and Sinaloa. The program of the organization is, first, to secede from Mexico and then, following the Texas precedent, to apply for admission as States into the American Union. * * *
The existence of this organization and its power are not in the least doubted by the Mexican Government and people, and the opinion is general that it is influencing the attitude of the United States toward Mexico at the present moment. To this large section of public opinion the failure of our Government officially and formally to recognize the present Provisional Government is unhesitatingly accepted as evidence that it is secretly in sympathy with the plotters against the integrity of the Republic and is conniving at the overthrow of the authority of a neighboring and friendly State. The Government is actively propagating this idea not only at home but abroad, and it is beginning to have lodgment in the opinion of the Diplomatic Corps here.
The resentment which exists here against our policy is profound and growing, and it is finding expression in excited discussions in the press in open attacks on our Government and this Embassy (which is supposed to be making representations against recognition) and by what appears to be an organized boycott of American commodities of all kinds which would be most effective if any great amount of American products were coming into the country.
Whatever reasons of policy lie at the foundation of our Government’s present attitude toward Mexico, and it is not doubted that they are conceived in a spirit of justice, it is none the less true that the effects here have been most disastrous, not only creating and reviving a new and intense anti-American spirit in this country which is making itself felt in all the channels of trade and the daily relations of life, but is giving ground for a false interpretation by rebels of friendliness toward them. The other foreign interests in this country are taking (and openly state so) advantage of our present unpopularity, and, through their diplomatic representatives and in other ways, are taking from Americans trade and privileges which, under normal conditions, would belong to us. The British Minister informed me a few days ago that he thought it entirely fair to make use of the opportunity growing out of the present embarrassed relations with the United States to push British enterprises in every direction, and there is a semiofficial statement in the press emanating from the President to the effect that the Government intends in all ways to show a preference to the nationals of those Governments which have recognized Mexico over those which have failed to do so.
The economic situation of the country, to which the attention of the Department has been frequently called by telegraph, continues to be very grave. Exchange on Europe and the United States has been as high as 2.40 and at the present moment is 2.20. These rates are, of course, practically prohibitive except for small transactions and an abnormal situation of foreign trade relations therefore exists which is without parallel in the history of this country for the last 50 years. The destruction of railways and lines of communication, which is being extensively carried on and which has now brought about the annihilation of over 60 per cent of the railway system of [Page 804] Mexico, adds in a very marked way to the general economic disorder. The coffee, sugar, rubber, and fruits of the south are either going to waste on account of a diminished labor market or because the products if harvested can not be transported to market. The closing of silver and gold mines and the suspension of the smelting and iron mills of the country, which are the principal supplies of foreign exchange, have enormously increased the difficulties of a situation already almost strained to the breaking point. The strong probabilities are, however, that this economic situation will soon be relieved by the dissemination through all the channels of trade of the $150,000,000 loan which appears now to be in the last stages of negotiation. This loan is being secured through a Belgian-English-French syndicate and, although the details have not been fully arranged and are not known to the public, my advices are that they are highly disadvantageous to this Government as they include a high rate of interest and a fixed percentage charge on customs duties.
The attitude of the President and his Cabinet vis-à-vis the situation which has been recounted in these pages remains calm, serene, active, and vigilant. The President is a man of indomitable courage, great energy, and, I believe, great patriotism. His manners and methods are not always above reproach, but he understands his country and the Mexican people, and he knows what he wants and usually manages to get it. The Cabinet is composed of some of the best material the country affords, and is in marked contrast with all others which have existed in the past ten years. While not in perfect political harmony, it is working unitedly and unselfishly for the restoration of peace throughout the country and it is having the support of the best elements.
I am [etc.]