File No. 812.00/5823.

The American Arnbassaolor to the Secretary of State.


The substance of my analysis of the situation, made since my return,2 is as follows:

I regard the whole situation as gloomy if not hopeless. Armed revolution against the Government has for the moment sensibly diminished, [Page 693] but one or more revolutionary movements may at any time be dangerous to the Government, already suffering from universal unpopularity. In the north the revolution exists only in the States of Durango and Chihuahua; violence elsewhere is simply brigandage. In the south the States of Mexico, Michoacan, Guerrero, Morelos, and parts of Oaxaca, Puebla and Vera Cruz are practically in revolt against the Government and brigandage is existent everywhere.

The Government is making frantic efforts to borrow, but the German and French Ministers have made cautionary representations to their Governments, and success would appear problematical. Unless an unexpected change occurs a crisis will be inevitable.

The strike on the National Railways is at present the gravest situation the Government has to deal with, as suspension would bring about intolerable conditions. Unless this difficulty is arranged within two or three days all communication throughout the Republic, except by the Mexican Railway, will be suspended and thousands of men added to the forces of disorder.

  1. Mr. Wilson resumed charge of the Embassy on January 5.