128. Memorandum from Raskin to Bundy, May 71
SUBJECT
- The ACDA paper entitled “The Economic and Social Consequences of Disarmament”
The paper prepared by ACDA on the economic and social consequences of disarmament makes a good argument for the position that the United States will be able to utilize its resources now used for defense for alternative purposes in case disarmament is achieved. A variety of economic methods are outlined for putting resources to work in both the private sector (tax cuts) and the public one (urban renewal, education, natural resources, health services, Social Security). The report outlines the possibility of increased expenditures on foreign aid.
The paper also touches on structural adjustments which will occur in certain industries. For example, Washington, California, certain New England states, New Mexico, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, are rather heavily dependent on defense expenditures, and would be dislocated economically to some extent. As a result, the report suggests that programs will have to be undertaken in these particular areas to allow for easier conversion than would otherwise occur without planning.
For a variety of reasons, basically because the paper is an answer to an inquiry from the Secretary General, there is no discussion of the difficult political and educational problems involved in reconversion. An important element in the disarmament process is the psychological one of making people understand that individual defense interests will not fall to pieces economically in the event of disarmament. The only real way this can be proven to the defense groups is to get them interested and involved in the planning process for disarmament.
One specific way of doing this is through the involvement of the CED, that wonderful syndical organization which did an excellent job after the second world war, preparing a prosperous peace-time economy, psychologically, politically and economically. I have spoken with Mr. Foster, an active participant in CED, about the possibilities [Typeset Page 353] [Facsimile Page 2] of getting them interested in problems which have to do with economics of disarmament. I suggested that the CED undertake research and proselytizing on the question of economics of disarmament. He agreed and will urge the CED to undertake such action this weekend.
It is unfortunately the case that ACDA is not doing anything of significance in a substantive or research way with respect to the economics of disarmament. At present, ACDA has one person who I understand is competent on this question. His name is Kiefer, a political economist, who is in the Foreign Service. As you know, the ACDA table of organization calls for an Assistant Director in Charge of Economics. This position as yet has not been filled, nor is there anyone on the staff level working in the agency on these questions except Kiefer. Yet, the strong implication of the report prepared by ACDA suggests that a group within the government should be working, research- and planning-wise on questions which have to do with the economics of disarmament—as well as stimulating other groups outside the government to work on these same questions. This has not been done by ACDA, and beyond my discussion with Foster no plans exist for such an undertaking.
Thus, what is a difficult but manageable problem,—the economics of disarmament—becomes unmanageable and almost insurmountable, because the economic interests directly involved do not think and plan ahead in any rational fashion. The natural result, of course, is that people then think that disarmament is impossible for parochial economic reasons and work against it as a national security policy.
- Views on ACDA’s paper on the Economic and Social Consequences of Disarmament. No classification marking. 2 pp. Kennedy Library, National Security Files, Departments and Agencies Series, ACDA, Disarmament, 18-Nation Conference, Geneva, 5/62–6/62.↩