Foreign Relations of the United States: Diplomatic Papers, The Conferences at Cairo and Tehran, 1943

J. C. S. Files

Combined Chiefs of Staff Minutes¹

November 28, 1943, 4 p.m.

u. s. secret

The President said, as the youngest of the three Chiefs of State present, he had the privilege of welcoming Marshal Stalin and Prime Minister Churchill to this auspicious conference. We are sitting around this table for the first time as a family, with the one object of winning the war. Regarding the conduct of naval and military meetings, it has been our habit, between the British and the United States, to publish nothing but to speak our minds very freely. In such a large family circle we hope that we will be very successful and achieve constructive accord in order that we may maintain close touch throughout the war and after the war. The General Staffs of the three countries should look after military matters. Marshal Stalin, the Prime Minister and I have many things to discuss regarding matters pertaining to conditions after the war. If anyone of us does not want to talk about any particular subject brought up we do not have to. The President added that before he came to the discussion of military problems he felt that perhaps the Prime Minister would like to say something about matters pertaining to the years to come.

The Prime Minister said that we represent here a concentration of great worldly power. In our hands we have perhaps the responsibility for the shortening of this war. In our hands we have, too, the future of mankind. I pray that we may be worthy of this God-given opportunity.

The President then turned to Marshal Stalin and said, “Perhaps our host would like to say a few words.”

Marshal Stalin said, “I take pleasure in welcoming those present. I think that history will show that this opportunity has been of tremendous import. I think the great opportunity which we have and the power which our people have invested in us can be used to take full advantage within the frame of our potential collaboration. Now let us get down to business.”

The President said he would like to start with a general survey of the war and of the meaning of the war. This survey will be from the American point of view. We earnestly hope that the completion of the war will come just as soon as possible. Let us begin with a subject that affects the United States more than either Great Britain or the U. S. S. R., the subject of the Pacific. It is most important to us to bring back to the United States those forces which are now in the Pacific. We are bearing a major part of the Pacific war. The United States has the greatest part of its naval power in the Pacific, plus about one million men. We are proceeding on the principle of attrition as regards Japan. At the present that policy is being accepted in our country. We believe we are sinking many Jap ships, both naval and merchant—more than they can possibly replace. We have been moving forward toward Japan from the south and now we are moving toward Japan through the islands from the east. There is very little more that we can do as regards operations from the north. On the west of Japan it is necessary for us to keep China in the war. Hence, we have arranged plans for operations through North Burma and into the Yunnan Province. That operation will advance us far enough so that China herself can strike into the Yunnan Province. In addition, we are still discussing an amphibious operation in order to strike at the supply lines from the Jap base at Bangkok. This base is a veritable storehouse for Japan. The whole operation covers a huge territory, and large numbers of ships and men and planes are necessary to carry it out. We must definitely keep China actively in the war.

The President said, in the second place, we hope, by opening the Burma Road and increasing the transportation of supplies by plane into China, we will be in a position to attack Tokyo from China by air this summer. All this is regarding the Southeast Asia operations. But we want to express to you the very great importance not only of keeping China in the war but of being able to get at Japan with the greatest possible speed.

Now to come down to the more important operations which are of immediate concern to the U. S. S. R. and Great Britain. In the last two or three conferences at Casablanca, Washington and Quebec,² we have made many plans. As a matter of fact, about a year and a half ago the major part of our plans were involved in consideration of an expedition against the Axis across the English Channel. Largely because of transportation difficulties we were not able to set a definite date. Not only do we want to get across the English Channel but once we are across, we intend to proceed inland into Germany. It would be impossible to launch such an operation before about 1 May 1944—it was decided at Quebec. The Channel is such a disagreeable body of water. No matter how unpleasant that body of water might be, however, we still want to get across it. (Mr. Churchill interpolated that we were very glad it was an unpleasant body of water at one time.) We can not do everything we would like to do in the Mediterranean and also from the United Kingdom, as there is a definite “bottleneck” in the matter [matériel] of war called landing craft. If we were to conduct any large expedition in the Mediterranean, it would be necessary to give up this important cross-Channel operation, and certain contemplated operations in the Mediterranean might result in a delay in Overlord for one month or two or three. Therefore, I pray in this military Conference to have the benefit of the opinion of the two Soviet Marshals and that they will inform us how in their opinion we can be of most help to the U. S. S. R.

The President said that he felt that even though Overlord should be delayed, we can draw more German divisions from the Soviet front by means of that operation than any other. We have the troops in the Mediterranean but there is a shortage of landing craft. We might help the U. S. S. R. by doing certain immediate operations in the Mediterranean, but we must avoid, if possible, delaying Overlord beyond May or June. There were several things we could do: (a) increase the drive into Italy; (b) undertake an operation from the Northeast Adriatic; (c) operations in the Aegean; (d) operations from Turkey. That is what this military conference is concerned with and we want to create a withdrawal of German divisions from the Western Front. (The Prime Minister interpolated “as soon as possible.”)

The Prime Minister said we would like to know what we can do that would most gratefully [greatly] help that which the Soviets are doing on their Western Front. He added that we have tried to outline matters in the simplest terms. There are no differences between Great Britain and the United States in point of view except as regards “ways and means.” We would like to reserve any further comments until after we have heard from Marshal Stalin.

Marshal Stalin said, as regards the first part of the President’s remarks, we Soviets welcome your successes in the Pacific. Unfortunately we have not so far been able to help because we require too much of our forces on the Western Front and are unable to launch any operations against Japan at this time. Our forces now in the East are more or less satisfactory for defense. However, they must be increased about three-fold for purposes of offensive operations. This condition will not take place until Germany has been forced to capitulate. Then by our common front we shall win.

Regarding the second part of the President’s remarks concerning Europe, Marshal Stalin said he had certain comments to make. Firstly, in a few words, he would like to tell how the Soviets are conducting their own operations, especially since they started their advance last July. (Here The Marshal inquired whether he would be taking too much time to discuss the operations on the Soviet front, and The President and Prime Minister both replied emphatically in the negative and requested him to proceed.)

Marshal Stalin said that after the German defense had collapsed, they were prepared to start their offensive, i. e., they had accumulated sufficient munitions, supplies and reserves, etc. They passed easily from the defensive into the offensive. As a matter of fact, they did not expect the successes they achieved in July, August, and September. Contrary to the Soviet expectations, the Germans are considerably weakened. At the present time the Germans have on the Soviet front 210 divisions, plus 6 German divisions that are in the process of being furnished for this front. In addition, there are 50 non-German divisions, which include 10 Bulgarian, 20 Finnish, and 16 to 18 Rumanian.

The President asked what the present strength of these divisions was.

Marshal Stalin replied that the Germans considered a normal division to be eight to nine thousand men, not counting the corps troops, antiaircraft artillery, and so forth. Including these special troops, the divisions totaled about twelve thousand. He said that last year the Germans had 240 divisions on the Soviet front, 179 of which were German. However, this year they have 260 divisions on the Soviet front, 210 of which are German, plus the six that are now moving from the West. The Red Army has 330 divisions opposing the Germans. This Soviet excess of 70 divisions is used for offensive operations. If the excess did not exist, no offensive operations would be possible. However, as time goes on the difference between the German and Soviet strength decreases, particularly as to the result of demolitions which the Germans construct during their withdrawals, which makes supply difficult. As a result, the operations have slowed down, but the Red Army still maintains the initiative. In some sectors the operations have come to a standstill.

Marshal Stalin said that as to the Ukraine, west and south of Kiev, the Germans have taken the initiative. In this sector they have three old and five new tank divisions, plus 22 or 23 infantry or motorized divisions. These are for the purpose of capturing Kiev. Some difficulties may, therefore, be foreseen. All of these factors make it necessary that the Soviets continue operations in the West and remain silent as far as the Far Eastern front is concerned. The above is a description of the Soviet operations during this past summer.

Now a few words as to how the U. S. S. R. believes the forces of the United States and Great Britain could be best used to help the Soviet front. Possibly this is a mistake, but the U. S. S. R. has considered the operations in Italy as of great value in order to permit ships to pass through the Mediterranean. As to other large operations against Germany from the Italian front, it is not considered that operations in Italy are of great value to further the war against the Axis. Thus, it is believed that the Italian operations were of great importance in order to produce freedom of navigation, but that now they are of no further great importance as regards the defeat of Germany. There was once a time when the Soviets tried to invade the Alps,³ but they found it a very difficult operation.

In the U. S. S. R. it is believed that the most suitable sector for a blow at Germany would be from some place in France—Northwestern France or Southern France. It is thought that Hitler is trying hard now to contain as many Allied divisions in Italy as possible because he knows things cannot be settled here, and Germany is defended by the Alps. It would be a good thing if Turkey could open the way to Germany, and it would then be unnecessary to launch a cross-Channel operation. However, despite the fact that the heart of Germany is far from the Balkans, it would be a better area from which to launch an attack than from Italy. Soviet military authorities believe it would be better to use Northern France for invasion purposes, but it must be expected that the Germans will fight like devils to prevent such an attack.

The Prime Minister then said that the British had long agreed with the United States that an invasion of North and Northwestern France across the Channel should be undertaken. At the present time preparations for such an operation are absorbing the major part of our energies and resources. He said it would take a long statement to explain why the U. S. and U. K. have not been able to strike against France in 1943, but that they are resolved to do so in 1944. In 1943 operations in Africa and across the Mediterranean were the best that could be accomplished in view of the limitations imposed by the lack of shipping and landing craft. He said that the United States and Great Britain had set before themselves the object of carrying an army into France in the late spring or early summer of 1944. The forces set up for this operation amount to 16 British divisions and 19 U. S. divisions, a total of 35. It must be remembered, however, that these divisions are almost twice as strong as the German divisions. The enterprise will involve a force of a million men being placed into France in 1944.

At this point Marshal Stalin stated that he had not wished to imply that the Mediterranean operations had been unimportant.

The Prime Minister said he was very grateful for the Marshal’s courtesy, but both he and the President had never regarded the Mediterranean operations as more than a stepping stone to the main offensive against Germany. He said that after the British 16 divisions had been committed, there would be no more British divisions available for the operations. The entire British manpower would be necessary to maintain the divisions thus committed in France and elsewhere throughout the world. The remaining build-up for the offensive against Germany would rest with the United States. The Prime Minister said, however, that the summer of 1944 is far away. This particular operation is six months away. It is asked now what can be done in the meanwhile that will be of more use and take more weight off the U. S. S. R., possibly without delaying Overlord more than a month or two. Already seven of the best divisions have been withdrawn from the Mediterranean for Overlord and many landing craft have already gone or are being collected together. These withdrawals, plus bad weather, have resulted in our great disappointment at not now being in Rome. However, it is hoped to be there in January. General Alexander, who is commanding these operations under the direction of General Eisenhower, feels that that offensive might result in completely cutting off the 10 or 12 divisions now opposing the Anglo-American forces. This would result from amphibious operations, flanking movements, which would cut off their lines of withdrawal.

The United States and the British have not come to any decision regarding plans for going into the Valley of the Po or for trying to invade Germany from Northern Italy. It was felt that when the Pisa–Rimini line should be reached we could then look toward Southern France or the Adriatic. It would be possible to use sea power in order to open the way.

The Prime Minister said, however, that the operations referred to above were not enough. Ways of doing much more were now being talked of. Splendid things had been accomplished in Yugoslavia by Tito, who is doing much more than Mihailovich had accomplished. There were no plans to put a large army into Yugoslavia, but a blow could be struck at the Germans by means of assisting the Tito forces through increased supplies.

The Prime Minister said that one of the greatest things under consideration was the matter of bringing Turkey into the war, persuading her in, and opening the communications into the Dardanelles, Bosphorus and the Black Sea. Such operation would make possible an attack on Rhodes and other islands in the Aegean. The above would have a very important effect in that it would be possible for convoys to supply the U. S. S. R. through that route and these convoys could be maintained continuously. At the present time four convoys are scheduled via the northern routes, but it will not be possible to send more because of the necessity of utilizing the escorts for the Overlord build-up.

The Prime Minister said one of the most important questions is how Turkey can be persuaded to come into the war. What should be done about this matter? If Turkey should enter the war, should she be asked to attack Bulgaria or should her forces stop on the Thrace front? What would be the effect of Turkey’s action on Bulgaria? What do the Soviets think Bulgaria would do in the event of Turkey’s coming into the war? How would Turkey’s entry into the war affect Rumania and Hungary? Would not Turkey’s entry into the war and consequent operations in the Aegean bring about a political “turnover” and force a German evacuation of Greece? It would be appreciated if the Soviets would let us know their opinion, political as well as military, on the above questions.

Marshal Stalin said with regard to the remark of the Prime Minister as to whether it was thought Bulgaria would remember the Soviet action in freeing her from the Turks⁴—the liberation of Bulgaria has not been forgotten.

The Prime Minister continued that the objective of operations which were contemplated in the Eastern Mediterranean was to support the Soviets provided the U. S. S. R. considered the matter of sufficient interest for these operations to be undertaken—even if it meant as much as about two months’ delay in Overlord. Until it is known how the Soviets feel about Turkish and Aegean operations, the matter can not be definitely decided. The U. S. and U. K. can only decide this point after consulting with the U. S. S. R.

The President said that possibly an entry through the Northeastern Adriatic for offensive operations against Germany in the direction of the Danube would be of value. Such operations were being considered together with a movement into Southern France. Plans for these operations had not been worked out in detail. Such plans would be based, of course, on the assumption that the Red Army would at the same time be approaching Odessa. It was thought, however, that it would be desirable to have a subcommittee go into the details of this matter.

The Prime Minister said that if the Anglo-American forces take Rome and break up the German formation south of the Apennines they would then have the choice of proceeding to Southern France or eastward across the Adriatic.

Marshal Stalin said that he understood it would require 35 divisions to invade France. Did these include the forces to be used in the Mediterranean?

The Prime Minister indicated that the Mediterranean forces were entirely separate from those included in the Overlord build-up. Pie added that after the Italians had been defeated in Italy there remained the possibility of an attack against Southern France or across the Adriatic in the direction of Hungary and the Danube. Entirely separate from the Overlord build-up there would be 22 divisions available in the Mediterranean; these should all be used. However, it was not possible to move more than seven of them to the Overlord build-up because of a lack of shipping. Pie explained again that the Overlord build-up was to include 16 British and 19 American divisions; that once the 16 British divisions had been committed there would be no more British divisions available. However, the United States would continue to pour divisions into France as fast as they could be shipped across the Atlantic until a total force of 50 to 60 divisions had been reached. He pointed out, incidentally, the British and American divisions with their necessary supporting troops could be roughly estimated at 40,000 men each.

The Prime Minister also spoke of the large air forces being assembled in England. The present R. A. F. has about reached its maximum strength and [will?] be maintained at this strength in the future. However, it is contemplated that the American Air Forces in England will be doubled or tripled in the next six months. The U. S. has already shipped a million tons of stores to the United Kingdom in preparation for the Overlord operation. Mr. Churchill said that the President and he would be delighted to have the whole schedule of the Overlord build-up, both as to personnel and supply, presented to the Soviet authorities and answer any questions which they might have on this subject. He added that the schedule so prepared is being carried out.

Marshal Stalin said it seemed to him that in addition to the operations to capture Rome and in addition to those envisaged for the Adriatic, an operation in Southern France was contemplated.

The Prime Minister replied it was hoped that an operation against Southern France might be carried out as a diversion for Overlord but that detailed plans for such an operation had not been worked out.

Marshal Stalin asked if Turkey enters the war will Anglo-American forces be allocated to assist them?

The Prime Minister said that speaking for himself, two or three divisions would be required to take the islands in the Aegean that control communications to Turkey, that 20 squadrons of fighter aircraft and several regiments of anti-aircraft artillery could also be supplied by the British without seriously affecting other operations in the Mediterranean.

Marshal Stalin then said that the Anglo-American presentation was clear to him and indicated that he would like to make some comments. He said that it was not worthwhile to scatter the British and American forces. The plans presented seemed to indicate that part would be sent to Turkey, part to be utilized in Southern France, part in Northern France and part for operations across the Adriatic. He suggested that Overlord be accepted as a basis for operations in 1944 and other operations should be considered as diversionary. He thought that after Rome had been captured there might be a chance for an operation against Southern France from Corsica, in which event the Overlord forces plus the Southern France invasion force could establish contact in France. This, he thought, would be a much better operation than to scatter forces in several areas distant from each other. He considered that France was the weakest of all German-occupied areas. He added that he had no hopes of Turkey entering the war and in fact was convinced that she would not, in spite of all pressure that might be exerted.

The Prime Minister said that he and the President had understood that the Soviet authorities wanted Turkey to come into the war. They were prepared to make every effort to persuade or force her to do so.

Marshal Stalin said the Soviets do want Turkey to enter the war but he felt that she could not be taken in by “the scruff of the neck.”⁵

The Prime Minister said that he agreed that the Anglo-American forces should not be scattered but that the operations he had outlined in the Eastern Mediterranean would require only three or four of a total of 25 divisions that might be available. He thought that this could be accomplished without seriously affecting the main operations of Overlord. Most of the operations would be done by divisions from the Middle East. The air power necessary to assist Turkey would be taken from that now protecting Egypt and thus they would be brought into a better position to strike at the enemy.

The Prime Minister said he dreaded the six months’ idleness between the capture of Rome and the mounting of Overlord. Hence, he believed that secondary operations should be considered in order to deploy forces available.

Marshal Stalin said he would like to express another opinion, i. e., that he believed Overlord has the greatest possibilities. This would particularly be the case if Overlord operations were suported by another offensive movement from Southern France. He believed that the Allies should be prepared to remain on the defensive in Italy and thus release 10 divisions for operations in Southern France. Within two or three months after operations commenced in Southern France and the German forces had thus been diverted, the time would be propitious to start an operation in the North of France such as Overlord. Under these conditions the success of Overlord would be assured. Rome might then be captured at a later date.

The Prime Minister observed that we should be no stronger if we did not capture Rome. If the airfields north of Rome are not secured it would be impracticable to place adequate aircraft for an attack on Southern France. He said it would be difficult for him to agree not to take Rome this January. He added that failure to do so would be considered as a crushing defeat, and that the House of Commons would feel that he was failing to use his British forces in full support of the Soviet ally. He said that in this event he felt it would be no longer possible for him to represent his government.

Marshal Stalin suggested that an operation against Southern France might be undertaken and given air cover from bases on Corsica.

The Prime Minister said that it would take considerable time to construct the necessary airfields on the Island of Corsica.

The President said that Marshal Stalin’s proposals concerning Southern France were of considerable interest to him. He would like to have the Planners make a study of the possibilities of this operation. The question of relative timing in the Eastern Mediterranean with reference to these operations posed a very serious question. The point was whether it would be better to go into the Eastern Mediterranean and delay Overlord for one or two months or to attack France one or two months before the first of May and then conduct Overlord on the original date. He was particularly desirous that this operation not be delayed if it were possible to avoid it.

Marshal Stalin said as the result of the Soviet experience in the past two years they have come to the conclusion that a large offensive from one direction is unwise. The Red Army usually attacks from two directions, forcing the enemy to move his reserves from one front to the other. As the two offensives converge the power of the whole offensive increases. Such would be the case in simultaneous operations from Southern and Northern France.

The Prime Minister said he agreed with the views expressed by Marshal Stalin but did not feel that his proposals concerning Turkey and Yugoslavia were inconsistent with them. He wished to go on record as saying that it would be difficult and impossible to sacrifice all activity in the Mediterranean in order to keep an exact date for Overlord. There would be 20 divisions which could not be moved out of the Mediterranean because of a lack of shipping. These should be used to stretch Germany to the utmost. He expressed the hope that careful and earnest consideration should be given to making certain that operations in the Mediterranean were not injured solely for the purpose of keeping the May date for Overlord. He added that agreement between the three powers was necessary and would be reached but he hoped that all factors would be given careful and patient consideration before decisions were reached. He suggested meditating on the discussions of the first meeting and reviewing them at the meeting of the next day.

The President said he thought it would be a good idea for the staff to immediately conduct a study on the operations against Southern France.

The Prime Minister agreed that the staff should investigate plans for operations against Southern France but added that they should also work on Turkey.

Marshal Stalin agreed that it would be well to continue consideration of these matters the next day. He had not expected that the conference would deal with purely military questions and therefore they had not brought a large military staff. He added, however, that Marshal Voroshiloff was present and would be available for military discussions.

The Prime Minister asked how the question of Turkish entry into the war should be considered. He asked if she could be brought in, what she should be expected to do in the event that she did come in and what the cost of her entry would be to the three powers concerned.

Marshal Stalin said that the entry of Turkey into the war was both a political and a military question. Turkey must take pride in the policy of entry from the point of view of friendship. The British and the United States should use their influence to persuade Turkey to help. In this way it would be impossible for Turkey to maintain her position as a neutral and continue to play fast and loose between our side and the Axis. It was his opinion that if it were not possible to induce Turkey to enter the war as a matter of friendship, she should not enter. Marshal Stalin added that all neutral states, including Turkey, look upon belligerents as fools. We must prove to them that if they do not enter this war they will not reap the benefits of the victory.

The Prime Minister observed that Christmas time would be a dangerous season for Turkey. He added that he proposed submitting a paper which he would present before the conference, containing six or seven questions which should be answered in order to clarify the Turkish situation.⁶

The President said that he would do all he could to persuade the President of Turkey to enter the war. However, he felt personally that Turkey would ask such a high price for her entry as a belligerent that Overlord would be jeopardized.

Marshal Stalin said that the Turks have not yet answered the proposals already made to them but that he expected their reply would be in the negative.

The Prime Minister said that Turkey would be mad not to accept the Soviet invitation to join the winning side. If she failed to align herself with us she would certainly loose [lose] the sympathy of the British people and almost certainly of the American people.

Marshal Stalin observed that “a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.” The Turks are now inactive and they should help us.

The Conferees then agreed that the plenary session should be held at 1600 the following day.

The President observed that it would be desirable to have a military conference first.

It was agreed that a military conference should be held at 1030 the following day, that Marshal Voroshiloff should represent the U. S. S. R., Admiral Leahy and General Marshall should represent the U. S. A. and General Brooke and Air Marshal Portal should represent Great Britain.

1. For editorial annotations, see also the Bohlen minutes of this meeting, supra.
2. The records of the conferences of Roosevelt and Churchill held at Casablanca, Washington, and Quebec are scheduled to be published subsequently in other volumes of the Foreign Relations series. For the military planning at these conferences, see Matloff, chapters i, vi, x.
3. The reference is to the operations of Russian troops in the Napoleonic Wars: see ante, p. 490, footnote 5.
4. The reference is to Russian action in 1877–78. With regard to the Churchill remark referred to by Stalin, see ante, p. 492.
5. According to Churchill, p. 355, Stalin replied as follows to Churchill’s question whether it was not intended to renew the effort to induce Turkey to enter the war: “I am all in favour of trying again. We ought to take them by the scruff of the neck if necessary.”
6. The paper to which Churchill referred was drawn up by the British Chiefs of Staff at Tehran and dated November 28, 1943. It was not discussed, however, at the Tehran Conference. On December 2, 1943, the paper was circulated as C. C. S. 418 to the Combined Chiefs of Staff at Cairo. It was discussed at their meeting on December 3, 1943, and was approved with amendments as 418/1. See post, pp. 673 and 782, respectively.