Office of the Historian

719. Special National Intelligence Estimate 85–3–63, November 151

November 15, 1963
[Facsimile Page 1] [Facsimile Page 2]

THE EFFECTS OF HURRICANE FLORA ON CUBA

CONCLUSIONS

A. Hurricane Flora was the worst that ever hit Cuba. Its most important consequence has been to exacerbate the already serious economic problems of the regime. (Paras. 1–2, 19, 20)

B. Cuban agriculture was hardest hit, but transportation and communications also suffered major damage. Industrial and military facilities escaped relatively lightly. Oriente and Camaguey, the two provinces which bore the brunt of the storm, suffered heavy losses of homes and personal property. (Paras. 4–15)

C. The regime had hoped that economic improvement would follow this year’s harvest. Flora must have substantially diminished these hopes and because of damage to sugar cane, has also dimmed prospects for 1963. The estimated 1964 sugar harvest will probably be reduced by about 15 percent. Even so, Cuba may still exceed its 1963 foreign exchange earnings if higher sugar prices hold—as now seems likely. Because of the economic costs of reconstruction economic development will be retarded unless there is an increase in Soviet Bloc assistance. (Paras. 9, 21, 22)

D. Cuba’s need for greater aid will add to the strains already manifest in Cuban-Soviet relations. We believe the Soviets will not give Castro all the assistance he desires, but that they will continue to provide aid at approximately the current level along with meeting emergency needs. (Paras. 23–27)

E. For another few weeks or months, Castro will probably succeed in rallying most Cubans to special efforts and to ac [Facsimile Page 3] ceptance of unusual hardships. Thereafter, shortages of goods, the continuation of depressed living conditions, and the regime’s resort to draconian measures will alienate an increasing part of the citizenry. Even so, unless there is major dissidence within the military establishment, he and the minority wedded to him will probably be able to maintain control. We believe that Castro will not reduce to any significant degree his incitement of subversion in Latin America. (Paras. 28, 29)

  1. “The Effects of Hurricane Flora on Cuba.” Secret. 3 pp. CIA Files: Job 79–R01012A, ODDI Registry.↩