46. Memorandum of conversation, November 14, among Belcher, Thompson, Richardson, Carlisle, and others1
SUBJECT
- Chilean Presidential Election 1964, and Implications for US Strategy and Policy
PARTICIPANTS
- Taylor G. Belcher, WST
- Herbert B. Thompson, WST
- Ralph W. Richardson, WST/C
- Lois Carlisle, RAR
- [text not declassified]
The rough agenda of the meeting was per the attached questions. The following are views of various participants in the meeting and do not particularly reflect any consensus.
1. The importance of issues
In 1958 Alessandri emphasized creating more jobs and lowering prices.
The [less than 1 line not declassified] opinion poll of early 1963 clearly shows that domestic economic issues are the main preoccupations of the public: price controls; cost of living; Government control over key sectors of the economy, etc.
2. What is the problem facing the Department?
We have to determine whether the constellation of forces behind Durán is in our interest. [1½ lines not declassified]
[Facsimile Page 2]3. Issues versus Personalities
These factors are inter-related. The candidate’s personality is interpreted by a voter in terms of whether that candidate can be expected to deliver on an issue (credibility). Also involved are party machinery and party discipline.
[Typeset Page 120]4. Increased Voters
A reasonable assumption is that a large proportion are young. Another assumption then is that the Liberals and Conservatives can expect to attract a relatively smaller proportion of the new vote and probably that “more” will go further left than the Radicals. This leads to the assumption that the Radical-Democratic Front platform will have to be farther left, if it is to stand a chance of attracting new independent voters.
5. The Independent Vote
We should be careful in trying to apply election results from the municipal elections. Possibly a better means of measuring potential strengths of the four candidates would be to divide the electoral population into blue collar, white collar, students, etc., and guess which candidate is the stronger in each sector.
6. The Durán Candidacy
Durán obviously is in trouble. The major factor affecting him is Alessandri’s unclear position. If Alessandri were to make it absolutely clear he is not available for re-election and if he were to clearly show he endorses Durán (this need not be open, but could be done quietly but still clearly) Durán’s chances would increase a great deal.
[text not declassified]
[Facsimile Page 3]There are serious problems here. For one, Alessandri may have dark designs involving Prat’s candidacy. [1½ lines not declassified]
7. Are the Socialists Committed to Allende?
The Socialists are locked and trapped into supporting Allende. The only way this would change would be if the Communists took the initiative and dropped Allende.
We need to take the Allende campaign seriously. [text not declassified]
8. Dumping of Candidates
From history, it appears that no major candidate ever has dropped out of a campaign. If this is correct, dumping Durán would have a tremendous impact on the Front and would weaken its chances of continuing with a new candidate.
It may well be that Liberals and Conservatives are going on supporting Durán, knowing that he cannot win but realizing that if he folds up many Radicals will swing to Allende. We should keep in mind the recent Chilean analysis that it was Bossay’s candidacy in 1958 which denied Allende victory, not the Cura of Catapilco. Durán could fill the same function in relation to Frei versus Allende.
[Facsimile Page 4]9. Does Frei Need an Ally to Win?
Yes, [less than 1 line not declassified] he needs more strength. However, the PDC line is that the party is drawing from party strength on [Typeset Page 121] left and right and is the leader in attracting independent voters. That combination gives the PDC its chance to win.
It is interesting that within the week some Radicals are reportedly wondering whether they might make a deal with Frei. We have given up our ideal of a Christian Democrat-Radical combination. [2 lines not declassified]
[text not declassified]
11. Durán Campaign
[1½ lines not declassified] If it does roll, the Conservatives and Liberals are going to stay with him since they have no other place to go. [1½ lines not declassified]
12. Significance of Last Two Elections
The Ibañez and Alessandri elections show the public wants a change from the status quo. [1½ lines not declassified] The party with the best image of “change” is the PDC.
- Chilean Presidential election of 1964 and implications for U.S. strategy and policy. Secret. 4 pp. DOS, CF, POL 14 CHILE.↩