File No. 812.00/16503.
Special Agent Cobb to the Secretary of State.
The following suggestions resulting from calm consideration are earnestly made:
The best immediate means of turning Juarez to Carranza was lost when Ornelas came to El Paso and abandoned control of the garrison. Villa’s forces are disintegrating gradually but not as rapidly as they should.
The chief element of Villa cohesion is his commercial organization at El Paso and Juarez. The profits come from property stolen in Mexico and marketed through El Paso.
Villa can continue to operate after losing any number of officers so long as he is permitted in conjunction with American and Mexican grafters to market his loot here.
The port here should be closed outright, or, as perhaps would be less apt to provoke increased depredations by Villa, practically closed through the regulation of invoice or other means, thereby closing it to everything except baggage and the like, and such legitimate importations as come from original and bona-fide owners.
We must break up the band of commercial thieves operating here, who are now the root of the Villa menace, and who hereafter if not broken up will be conspirators, ammunition smugglers and managers of new revolts. We must force them to respect the power and laws of our Government.
This is a critical time for the border and not only for present results but as well for future effects. Therefore it is earnestly urged simultaneously with the recognition of Carranza that you put actions into effect here that will give the Villa commercial agency and the profit-seeking revolutionary adventurers physical demonstration that their activities will not longer be tolerated. In this connection I hope you may conclude to discontinue representations to Villa, or to any of the Villa chiefs, because of my belief that they do more harm, in the quasi-recognition and resulting encouragement of continued independent activities, than good in affording any actual protection. Furthermore the continuance of representations is in effect an invitation to such people as the smelting company, and any not in sympathy with you, to open up under Villa, which I fear they could be too easily induced to do, and thereby help support continued dissensions.
It is earnestly to be hoped that you may find it consistent to break things off short here, taking the chance of Villa retaliating with possible increased depredations for a while, but in all probability causing his complete collapse and a turn-over all along the line, excepting the comparatively few who are going to be bandits anyhow, to Carranza.