Intelligence and the Experiment in Competitive Analysis

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136. National Security Study Memorandum 178

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Subject Files, Box 365, NSSMs—Nos. 104–206. Secret.


137. National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R1012A: Intelligence Publications Files, Box 461, NIE 13–8–7, China’s Strategic Attack Programs. Top Secret. The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, and the Treasury, and the AEC participated in the preparation of the estimate. The DCI submitted the estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB, with the exception of the representative of the FBI, who abstained on the grounds that the subject was outside of his jurisdiction.


138. National Security Decision Memorandum 224

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 364, Subject Files, NSDMs Nos. 145–264. Secret. A copy was sent to Moorer.


139. National Security Study Memorandum 186

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 365, Subject Files, NSSMs—Nos. 104–206. Secret. A copy was sent to Moorer.


140. Special National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01012A: Intelligence Publications Files, SNIE 11–4–73. Top Secret. [Handling restriction not declassified] The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, the AEC, and the Treasury participated in the preparation of this estimate. The DCI submitted this estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB except for the FBI’s representative, who abstained because the subject was outside his jurisdiction.


141. National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01012A: Intelligence Publications Files, Box 455, NIE 11–8–73. Top Secret. [Handling restriction not declassified] The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, the NSA, and the AEC participated in the preparation of this estimate. The DCI submitted this estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB, except for the representatives of the FBI and the Department of the Treasury, who abstained on the grounds that the subject was outside of their jurisdiction.


142. Memorandum of Conversation

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Presidential/HAK Memcons, Box 1028, Memcons—HAK & Presidential, January 1–February 28, 1974 [1 of 3]. Secret; Sensitive. The meeting was held in the White House Cabinet Room.


143. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to President Nixon

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 278, Agency Files, PFIAB, Vol. 8 (1973). Top Secret; Sensitive. All brackets are in the original memorandum.


144. Letter From the Chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (Anderson) to President Nixon

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 278, Agency Files, PFIAB, Vol. 8 (1973). Secret. Copies were sent to Kissinger, Schlesinger, and Colby. Byers forwarded the letter to Scowcroft under a covering memorandum of April 30, which noted that Rockefeller and Kissinger had reviewed a draft of the letter on April 24. (Ibid.)


145. Memorandum from the Director of Central Intelligence (Colby) to President Nixon

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 84R01033R: Speeches/Lectures/Briefings Files, Box 1, Briefing to PFIAB, 7 June 1974. Secret. Copies were sent to Anderson, Kissinger, and Schlesinger.


146. National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01012A: Intelligence Publications Files, Box 480, Folder 4, SNIE 13–8–74 Final with Distribution List. Top Secret; [Handling restriction not declassified] The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State and Defense, the NSA, and the AEC participated in the preparation of this estimate. The intelligence organizations of the Army, Navy, and Air Force also participated. The Director of the CIA submitted this estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB except for the representatives of the FBI and the Department of the Treasury, who abstained.


147. Memorandum From the Director of Net Assessment, Office of the Secretary of Defense (Marshall) to Secretary of Defense Schlesinger

Source: Library of Congress, Manuscript Division, Schlesinger Papers, Action Memoranda, October–November 1974. Top Secret.


148. Memorandum From Secretary of Defense Schlesinger to the Director of Central Intelligence (Colby)

Source: Washington National Records Center, RG 330, OSD Files: FRC 330–78–0011, 320.2, Strategic (Sep.–Dec. 1974). Confidential. Marshall forwarded a draft of the memorandum for Schlesinger’s signature to Wickham under a covering memorandum, October 30. (Ibid.)


149. National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01012A: Intelligence Publications Files, Box 476, NIE 11–3/8–74. Top Secret. [Handling restriction not declassified] The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force; the NSA, and the AEC participated in the preparation of this estimate. The DCI issued this estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB with the exception of the representatives of the FBI and the Department of the Treasury, who abstained.


150. National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01012A: Intelligence Publications Files, Box 477, NIE 11–15–74, Soviet Naval policy and Programs. Top Secret. [Handling restriction not declassified] The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Departments of State, Defense, the Army, the Navy, and the Air Force participated in the preparation of this estimate. The DCI issued this estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB with the exception of the representatives of the FBI and the Department of the Treasury, who abstained.


151. Intelligence Report

Source: Library of Congress, Manuscript Division, Schlesinger Papers, Soviet Defense Expenditures. Secret. Proctor forwarded the report to Schlesinger under a covering memorandum, January 10, 1975. A note on the memorandum dated March 3 reads: “Sec Def Has Seen.” (Ibid.)


152. Memorandum of Conversation

Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Memoranda of Conversations, Box 12, June 5, 1975—Kissinger, Rockefeller, President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board. Secret; Sensitive. All brackets in the original. At the time of the meeting, PFIAB members included: Anderson (Chairman), Baker, Cherne, Foster, Galvin, Gray, Land, Luce, Shultz, Teller, and Byers (Executive Secretary).


153. Memorandum of Conversation

Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Memoranda of Conversations, Box 14, August 7—Rockefeller, Kissinger, PFIAB. Top Secret; Nodis. All brackets, except for those included by the editor to indicate omissions in the text, are in the orginal. The luncheon meeting was held at the Department of State.


154. Memorandum of Conversation

Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Memoranda of Conversations, Box 14, August 8, 1975—Ford, Kissinger, PFIAB. Top Secret. All brackets, except for those included by the editor to indicate omissions in the text, are in the original. The meeting was held in the Cabinet Room of the White House. During a meeting held the morning of August 8, Kissinger briefed Ford about his upcoming afternoon meeting with PFIAB: “The topics will be the weakness of strategic estimates, [less than 1 line not declassified] and more emphasis on economic intelligence. They are overdoing the strategic estimate a bit, but they could be improved. [1 line not declassified].” (Ibid., August 8, 1975—Ford, Kissinger)


155. Letter From the Chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (Anderson) to President Ford

Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, NSC Program Analysis Staff Files, Box 25, Subject Series, PFIAB/NIEs, 1975–76 (5). Top Secret; [Handling restriction not declassified]. Anderson handed this letter to Ford during the President’s August 8 meeting with PFIAB, the record of which is printed as Document 154.


156. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger) to the Director of Central Intelligence (Colby)

Source: Ford Library, National Security Adviser, NSC Program Analysis Staff Files, Box 25, Subject Series, PFIAB/NIEs, 1975–76 (5). Top Secret; Sensitive.


157. Minutes of United States Intelligence Board Meeting

Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–282, Intelligence Files, PFIAB (1) [1971–1975] [3 of 3]. Secret; [Handling restriction not declassified]. Colby chaired the meeting, held at CIA headquarters. According to a note on the minutes, the meeting reconvened on November 17. Attached, but not printed, is a list of attendees indicating that Chanatry and Aaron were not present at the November 17 session, held from 3:00 until 5:24 p.m. ERDA’s USIB representative Major General Edward B. Giller and Herbert W. Taylor did attend, the latter acting on Aaron’s behalf. Lawrence Finch was also in attendance, acting on the behalf of Hyland, who was present for only a portion of the meeting.


158. National Intelligence Estimate

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 79R01012A: Intelligence Publications Files, NIE 11–3/8–75. Top Secret. [Handling restriction not declassified] The CIA and the intelligence organizations of the Department of State and Defense, the NSA, and ERDA participated in the preparation of the estimate. The Assistant Chief of Staff for Intelligence, Department of the Army; the Director of Naval Intelligence, Department of the Navy; and the Assistant Chief of Staff, Intelligence, Department of the Air Force, also participated. The DCI issued the estimate with the concurrence of all members of the USIB except for the representatives of the FBI and the Department of the Treasury, who abstained. Colby forwarded the NIE to Ford under a covering memorandum, November 21, which read in part as follows: “In our current estimate we have been more explicit than before about the basis for our judgments and about our uncertainties.” Relative to previous Soviet estimates, Colby wrote, this one “conveys our estimates more precisely.” (Ford Library, National Security Adviser, Kissinger-Scowcroft West Wing Office Files, Box 33, USSR, NIE 11–3/8–75)


159. Letter From the Director of Central Intelligence (Colby) to President Ford

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 91M00696R: Subject Policy Files, Box 7, Competitive Analysis Background, 1975. Secret. Colby forwarded the letter to Scowcroft under a November 24 covering memorandum. (National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–282, Intelligence Files, PFIAB (1) [1971–1975] [3 of 3])


160. Letter From the Director of Central Intelligence (Colby) to the Chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (Anderson)

Source: National Security Council Files, Ford Administration Intelligence Files, Box I-013, NIE Evaluation by PFIAB. Confidential. A copy was sent to Scowcroft.


161. Memorandum for the Record

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 91M00696R: Subject Policy Files, Box 7, Competitive Analysis, Background, 1975. Top Secret.


162. Intelligence Report

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, DI/OSR Files, Job 79T00962A, Box 13, SR 76–10053, Feb. 1976. No classification marking.


163. Report Prepared by Robert W. Galvin, Edward Teller, and John S. Foster, Jr., of the National Intelligence Estimate Evaluation Committee of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board

Source: National Security Council Files, Ford Intelligence Files, Box I–013, NIE Evaluation by PFIAB. Secret. Galvin, the committee’s chairman, forwarded the report to Carver under a covering memorandum of April 29. (CIA, NIC Files, Job 91M00696R, Box 7, Competitive Analysis, Background, 1976.)


164. Intelligence Report Prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency

Source: Ford Library, Marsh Papers, Intelligence Subject File, Box 45, CIA—Mis-Estimate of Soviet Defense Spending. No classification marking. On May 18, Rumsfeld opened his Oval Office meeting with President Ford by discussing the CIA’s report. “Rumsfeld: The ruble expenditure paper comes out today. We have not interfered with the timing of it. What this tells us is that we underestimated their expenditure effort, overestimated their efficiency, and it makes no difference in their force strength.” According to the memorandum of conversation, “[s]ome discussion of pros and cons” followed. Rumsfeld then added, “I will have a backgrounder for the wires and nets just to put the right spin on it.” (Ibid., National Security Adviser, Memoranda of Conversations, Box 19, May 18, 1976—Ford, Kissinger, Rumsfeld) On May 19, the New York Times reported that while the CIA had doubled its previous estimate of Soviet defense spending, the new figures did not alter its estimate of actual Soviet military hardware. (“CIA Says It Has Underestimated Soviet Defense Cost,” New York Times, May 19, 1976, p. 4)


165. Letter From the Chairman of the President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board (Cherne) to the Director of Central Intelligence (Bush)

Source: Central Intelligence Agency, National Intelligence Council, Job 85B00134R: Intelligence Publications Files, Box 1, Competitive Analysis, Part II, Background on the A Team—B Experiment. Secret. Carver sent Galvin a draft of this letter under a cover letter, May 26, suggesting that either he (Galvin) or Cherne could sign it as a means to establish the ground rules of the competitive analysis experiment. Before doing so, Carver sent a note, also dated May 26, to Bush requesting his permission to send the draft letter to Galvin establishing “[t]he PFIAB Treaty.” That day, Bush wrote on the note: “[L]et her fly!! OK.” This exchange of correspondence regarding the experiment’s ground rules stemmed from Carver and Galvin’s May 12 meeting, held in Galvin’s office in Chicago. Carver’s letter to Galvin, his note to Bush, and his memorandum for the record following his meeting with Galvin are all ibid., Job 91M00696R, Box 7, Competitive Analysis, Background, 1976.