156. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security
Affairs (Kissinger) to the
Director of Central Intelligence (Colby)1
Washington, September 8, 1975.
- Possible Revisions in the NIE
The President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board has recommended2 that the current NIE process be converted to a new
—Production of a purely intelligence document which avoids net
—A detailed net assessment.
—A thorough critique of the net assessment by an independent entity.
A possible Presidential directive for implementation of this revision on
a trial basis for two strategic issues is at Tab A. The President would
like your comments on the PFIAB
recommendations and the proposed trial run.
Draft Memorandum to Secretary of Defense Schlesinger, the Deputy
Secretary of State (Ingersoll), and the Director of Central
- The Secretary of Defense
- The Deputy Secretary of State
- The Director of Central Intelligence
- Trial Modification to the NIE
In an effort to evaluate possible modifications to the national
intelligence estimating process the President has directed that:
—The Director of Central Intelligence establish an independent
analysis group composed of Intelligence Community and non-government
representatives which would produce an experimental estimate on the
capability of Soviet strategic forces, independent of NIE 11–3/8–75, in the following two
• Anti-Submarine Warfare
• Accuracy of ICBMs
This estimate should, in those instances when factual data is limited
or not available, present a complete spectrum of opposing views and
alternative interpretations. In addition, gaps in knowledge critical
to the assessment should be highlighted and the degree of
uncertainty in key judgments described in detail.
—The Interdepartmental Political-Military Group establish an ad hoc
net assessment working group which will prepare a net assessment in
the two strategic areas described above and submit its product to
the Chairman of the Under Secretaries Committee;
—The Under Secretaries Committee undertake a comparison and critique
of (1) the estimate and net assessment described above; and (2)
NIE 11–3/8–75 treatment of the
same three areas.