51. Memorandum of Conversation1
PARTICIPANTS
- Mr. John Thomson
- Dr. Henry A. Kissinger
- Dr. K. Wayne Smith
SUBJECT
- Dr. Kissinger’s Discussion with Mr. Thomson
Dr. Kissinger welcomed Mr. Thomson and remarked that he was pleased that Thomson had been able to attend the SRG meeting2 the previous day on the Indian Ocean study. He went on to say that this particular view of our bureaucracy in action could only be shown to our British friends—that he could never invite officials from other countries to such a meeting. Mr. Thomson expressed his gratitude at being invited and said he had found the meeting very satisfactory and very useful. His general impression from the meeting and from his discussions with the NSC staff was that there were no important differences between the two countries on the basic facts or the interpretation of those facts. He continued by saying that in his discussions with Prime Minister Heath before his visit he had explored the question: Since it was at U.K. initiative that the Indian Ocean problem was being studied, what if the U.S. asks us what we are going to do? The Prime Minister’s position, he explained, was essentially that:
- —He believes there is a growing problem in the Indian Ocean area resulting from the Soviet naval buildup.
- —He is not at all sure what should be done about it.
- —He is not going to go it alone.
- —But he is prepared to do something.
Dr. Kissinger replied that we are not yet prepared to say what we will do either, but based on his experience, the President would probably be inclined toward increasing our naval strength. Dr. Kissinger at this point also assured Thomson that the South African issue would be treated separately and would not interfere with developing joint responses to the Indian Ocean problem. Mr. Thomson stated that the Prime Minister would probably also want to do something on the naval [Page 163] side and that this decision would have to take account of British concerns in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea as well.
Dr. Kissinger noted that we need to put this problem into a larger context for the President’s consideration.3 The problems caused by the Soviet Navy in the Indian Ocean are only part of a larger problem caused by the increases in Soviet naval capabilities. He also noted that the President had not yet focused on the Indian Ocean but was convinced that the President would be very concerned once he became aware of the various Soviet activities. Dr. Kissinger pointed out that he himself had been somewhat shocked by the summary presentation given by Thomson at the SRG meeting. The presentation had, he declared, effectively synthesized the various problems and given the SRG members a good overview of the problem. Mr. Thomson then emphasized that the U.K. did not see this as the greatest problem we face, but simply as a problem. He expressed the view that recognition of the problem and increased cooperation could go a long way toward meeting it; he did not, he continued, believe the amount of extra resources required would be large.
Mr. Thomson then turned to the upcoming Commonwealth Prime Ministers’ Conference scheduled for February in Singapore and asked if Dr. Kissinger thought it would be a good idea to raise the Indian Ocean problem in this context. One possibility he had in mind, he explained, was to get eight or nine countries to do something jointly. [At this point Dr. Kissinger had to leave to see the President. He returned twenty minutes later.] Dr. Kissinger renewed the discussion by asking if, after the phase two portion of our study is completed, Thomson could return for another round of discussions. Mr. Thomson said that he would like very much to do so. Dr. Kissinger then explained the difficulties he had in getting papers that clearly stated the views of each agency. What he normally got, he noted, was a “negotiated” paper. Mr. Thomson noted that the same problems existed in the U.K.—indeed, that it had been institutionalized in the form of a “coordination man” who was sent around to coordinate a paper but knew nothing of its substance.
[Page 164]Dr. Kissinger inquired as to what Lord Rothschild4 was going to do. Mr. Thomson said he didn’t know for sure, but would probably concentrate on the domestic side. Dr. Kissinger stated that his impression of Rothschild was that he did not seem to be a man capable of taking charge of the bureaucratic machinery. He then explained that our system demands that one take charge from the first day and that was one great lesson he had learned from McNamara.5 He had explicitly done this, he noted, in his dealing with the bureaucracies during the first year and had begun to let up only recently after he had established control. Mr. Thomson volunteered that he had been asked at the Embassy how Dr. Kissinger had dealt with the SRG meeting and that he had responded by saying “with easy mastery.”
Mr. Thomson then turned to the possibility of doing some advance work with the Australians before the Commonwealth meeting in Singapore. Dr. Kissinger responded that he thought that was a good idea. Mr. Thomson then returned to his earlier question about getting the Commonwealth Prime Ministers’ Conference to focus on the problem. Dr. Kissinger asked if Thomson thought India and Pakistan would recognize this as a joint problem. Mr. Thomson said he didn’t know. Dr. Kissinger said he thought it would be interesting to see if the Commonwealth countries would be willing to undertake some kind of joint efforts. He noted that the Indians know how to use power and might be interested. He added that we now have some influence with Pakistan and would be willing to speak to that country regarding the Indian Ocean problem if some kind of plan was worked out. Mr. Thomson asked if Dr. Kissinger would be willing to send a member of the NSC staff to the Commonwealth meeting as an observer. Dr. Kissinger responded that he would.
Dr. Kissinger then asked Mr. Thomson about his position. Mr. Thomson replied that he was in the Cabinet office and theoretically was responsive to requests from all the Cabinet members. In fact, however, almost all of the requests came from the Prime Minister, the Foreign Minister, and the Defense Minister. Dr. Kissinger inquired if the Prime Minister could keep certain facts from the others. Mr. Thomson stated that he not only could but on occasion did.
Dr. Kissinger pointed out the advantages of having a small but capable staff. His staff sometimes complained bitterly while they were here, he explained, but often came back on their knees (like Larry Lynn)6 [Page 165] after having been away for a while. A student of international relations needed to stay in the government to be relevant he pointed out. He concluded by noting that this job had ruined him for any future consulting work because he had found that consultants almost never contribute anything. We use consultants largely, he added, for eyewash. What we needed from them was help in framing questions but what they wanted was to be operators. As an example, he cited Vietnam. Here he declared our consultants were always suggesting gimmicks, ignoring the fact that our policy couldn’t really make drastic turns, because each change had to be negotiated and explained to the U.S. bureaucracy, the South Vietnamese, the North Vietnamese, etc.
Mr. Thomson agreed wholeheartedly and noted that the same factors which prevented drastic changes in policy in Vietnam also prevented such changes in the Middle East. Dr. Kissinger, after noting that our Middle Eastern diplomacy is probably not going to go down in history as brilliant, asked Thomson what he thought we should do there. Mr. Thomson declared that he thought most of the chances for a solution have slipped away. The key to a solution he stated lay in the Soviets and the Egyptians decoupling themselves from Syria. The Israelis would simply not negotiate away from the Golan Heights, he believed. Dr. Kissinger agreed that a moderate Syrian government right now was a nightmare. Assuming Syria could be decoupled, what, he asked, would Thomson then suggest? Mr. Thomson responded that he would then suggest going ahead with the basic scheme worked out in the four-power talks earlier. The key problem in this, he pointed out, was whether or not Israel would be willing to go back to this plan. Dr. Kissinger stated that Israel would have to be forced back. Mr. Thomson suggested that this might not be the case, that he believed they would not want to go back but could be persuaded. Dr. Kissinger asked how. Mr. Thomson said with the promise of arms, aid, and Western guarantees. In light of recent Western performance regarding guarantees, Dr. Kissinger asked, wouldn’t this be insane? Mr. Thomson noted that what Israel wants is protection against guerrilla attacks and that Israel might accept some kind of arms package coupled with an agreement to withdraw. Dr. Kissinger then noted this did not seem likely since they are already getting arms without withdrawing. Mr. Thomson observed that it appeared that both sides were now simply putting on a show. Dr. Kissinger said that this might be so. He then expressed his belief that by summer time for an agreement will have run out. [At this point the meeting broke up and Mr. Thomson departed.]
- Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 727, Country Files, Europe, United Kingdom, Vol. IV. Secret. Sent for information. The meeting was held in Kissinger’s office. All brackets are in the original.↩
- See Document 50.↩
- Smith had drafted a memorandum for Kissinger to send to Nixon. (Ibid., NSC Institutional Files (H-Files), Box H–176, National Security Study Memoranda, NSSM 104) In an internal December 15 NSC memorandum to Kennedy, Robert Houdek wrote that the draft was “too lengthy and detailed for the President’s use,” although he thought Kissinger should read it. He felt that Sonnenfeldt covered the issues adequately in the talking points and background information prepared for Heath’s visit and wrote, “There is no indication on the memo that it has been coordinated with either Hal Sonnenfeldt or Hal Saunders. I have not called Smith on this point, because of his past sensitivity on this precise subject but will if you wish.” In the margin Kennedy agreed that the memorandum not go foward. (Ibid., NSC Files, Box 942, VIP Visits, United Kingdom Visit of PM Heath, December 1970)↩
- Nathaniel Mayer Victor, the 3rd Baron Rothschild, appointed in 1970 by Heath as the first Director General of the Central Policy Review Staff.↩
- Robert S. McNamara, Secretary of Defense, 1961–1968.↩
- Larry Lynn was a member of the National Security Council from 1969 to 1971; he resigned in 1970 over the invasion of Cambodia.↩