No. 102.
Mr. Noyes
to Mr. Evarts.
Paris, October 19, 1877. (Received November 3.)
Sir: The general election for the new Chamber of Deputies took place on the 14th instant, with the result which had been anticipated by every calm and close observer of the current of public opinion. The Republicans carried the day. Their majority is not as large as it was by them expected to be, and as it would have been if the most extraordinary official pressure had not been brought to bear against their candidates; but it is still a strong and powerful majority. They have already 316 seats in a house composed of 533 members in all.
The government deputies are divided into three groups: the Bonapartists, who number about 115 or 120, and the Legitimists and Orleanists, having together about 80 votes. In the former house the/Republicans stood 363 to 158. The Bonapartists had 90 votes; the Monarchists (Legitimists and Orleanists) 68. The Bonapartists have, therefore, gained some 25 seats and the Monarchists about one dozen, while the Republicans have lost 45 or 50 members. This, however, represents the state of things only as it is now. When the house shall organize some changes will take place, which probably will be to the advantage of the Republicans. In the first place, many of the seats of the Conservatives will be contested, and as the Republicans have the majority, and are not wanting for grounds of complaint, it is certain that at last the contests will end in their favor. Besides, in thirteen districts where no candidate had the required majority anew election is to be held, and it is reasonable to suppose that the Republicans will have at least one-half of these seats. Everything, therefore, points to this conclusion, that when the chamber shall be fully organized the Republican majority will be nearly as strong as it was in the last house.
The appeal to the country made by the Marshal having resulted in an unqualified condemnation of his policy, the question, “What will he do now?” occupies every one. Some people think he will retain his cabinet, defy again the chamber, and dissolve it a second time if the budget is not voted at once. For my part I doubt very much that such a bold and exasperating course will be taken. Had the President been beaten, as the opposition contended he would be, had his party lost seats instead of gaining some, it is possible he would have been led to some arbitrary act of resistance. But though he is defeated, his defeat is of such a character as to allow him to make some concessions without [Page 162] humiliation. I know from good authority that among his close friends, and even in his cabinet, the question of a change of ministry has been freely discussed and urged warmly by those who fear the complications and the dangers which would attend an open resistance to the majority. The titles and antecedents of all the Republicans of moderate tendency who could occupy a cabinet position without being too obnoxious to the Conservatives have been examined, and unofficial negotiations have begun to ascertain to what extent the proposed change, if it is made, would be satisfactory to the opposition.
There are certainly in the immediate surroundings of the President men who are doing their best to prevent him from thus accepting one of the alternatives so imperatively pointed out to him by Mr. Gambetta, and they may succeed for a while. But I have no doubt that after mature reflection the President will find that a quiet and frank submission to the will of the majority is the wisest policy he can now pursue. I am confident, however, that no changes in the cabinet will be made before the first days of November. The two houses meet on the 7th.
Under the present circumstances the men who are likely to be called to a new cabinet are not very numerous. They belong to the center left, which is composed mostly of former Monarchists now friendly to Republican institutions. Messrs. Dufaure, Leon Say, Duclerc, St. Vallier, Leon Renault, Savary de Marcère, Laboulaye, Waddington, Krantz, Germain, &c., occupy among them a prominent position. Of the present members of the cabinet, it is not likely that any will be retained if the change is determined upon, except possibly General Berthaut, the minister of war, who is not a politician, but who has the confidence of the left. Perhaps, also, the Duke Decazes may be retained, though he is bitterly opposed by some of the leaders of the Republican party, on account of what they regard as defection to their cause.
I should not leave this subject without mentioning that the elections have been carried on throughout France with perfect quiet and good order; not a single instance of violence or disturbance occurred in any place, and not even a case of drunkenness was noticed.
On election day, I personally visited quite a number of the voting places in Paris—several in what is known as the revolutionary quarter. I found the polls wholly unguarded by the police, and the electors passing before the judges with uncovered heads and in silence. The scene was to me very impressive.
I have, &c.,