Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume XIX, South Asia

289. Memorandum for the Record¹

Washington, June 27, 1978

SUBJECT

• Conversation of 27 June 1978²

[Omitted here is material unrelated to Pakistan.]

6. Pakistan: Delivered the NIE.³

a. The question was asked whether Zia has any control or substantial influence over the Supreme Court. I told him I thought not, but wasn’t able to answer that concretely. I did say that Zia had the authority to commute the sentence even if the court affirmed the original decision. I’d like to have both of these points checked.

b. There was skepticism when I mentioned that the French were thinking of announcing the termination of the reprocessing plant procurement in mid-July.

c. The point on the position of the civilian leaders in not wanting to join the government that was going to have to take the rap on Bhutto got across easily.

d. The point on the economy, particularly the gas reserves and the overseas remittances, seemed to be new points.⁴

e. When I mentioned the possibility that Pakistan would depart CENTO, the question was raised was that important to us. Brzezinski responded that it was from a psychological point of view; I affirmed it. In effect, Pakistan had almost not been participating in CENTO for the last couple of years—they were there only in a very titular manner.

f. There was particular appreciation expressed for this item. It apparently filled a need.

[Omitted here is material unrelated to Pakistan.]

Stansfield Turner⁵
Director

1. Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of the Director of Central Intelligence, Job 80M01542R: Executive Registry Subject Files, Box 23, Folder 442: Memo of Conversation with the Pres. White House. Secret. Prepared by Turner on June 28.
2. On June 27, Carter met with Turner from 11:30 to 11:45 a.m. in the Oval Office. Brzezinski and Jordan were also present. (Carter Library, Presidential Materials, President’s Daily Diary)
3. NIE 32–78; see Document 284.
4. According to the body of NIE 32–78: “Domestic economic conditions in Pakistan are currently stable, and concern over the balance-of-payments problem has eased as a result of sharply increased remittances from Pakistanis working overseas.” According to the estimate, remittances rose from $150 million in 1974 to an estimated $1.1 billion in 1978. The NIE also cited abundant natural gas reserves as cause for possible economic improvement. The reserves were a potential source for both domestic energy consumption and for export. The NIE continued: “In the absence of firm policy direction from the political leadership, however, no great progress can be expected in exploiting these potentials.”
5. An unknown hand signed on Turner’s behalf.