Foreign Relations of the United States, 1969–1976, Volume E–14, Part 1, Documents on the United Nations, 1973–1976

65. National Intelligence Estimate 57–2–74, Washington, August 23, 1974.¹ ²

Washington, August 23, 1974

NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE

Probable Impact of a UN Vote to Unseat the GKR

August 23, 1974

PROBABLE IMPACT OF A UN VOTE TO UNSEAT THE GKR

PRECIS

--The Cambodian Government (GKR) runs a substantial risk of being unseated at this fall’s UN General Assembly and would certainly lose if the question came to a vote now. A major effort is being made to reverse the situation before the vote does take place in the fall, but it is impossible to predict the outcome.

--The key factor in gauging the short-term impact of a negative vote would be its effect on US backing of the GKR.

--The GKR cannot survive without US material assistance and the constant direction and prodding provided by the US Mission.

--Following a negative UN vote, a rapid deterioration of GKR morale and effectiveness would occur unless strong assurances of continued US support were made.

--If US support were drastically curtailed or suspended by Congress following a negative vote in the UN, the GKR would collapse in a few weeks or months at most.

--If US aid were maintained, the GKR would probably survive through at least another dry season, and perhaps for a considerable period beyond.

--Even assuming the continuation of US support, a defeat at the UN would over the longer run cast new doubts on the survivability of the GKR.

--The Khmer Communists (KC) will to persist would be stiffened.

--The KC would be encouraged to further freeze Sihanouk--the only non-Communist leader within GRUNK with enough stature to challenge the power of the KC in a post-settlement government--out of a position of real influence in the insurgency.

--A genuine compromise settlement would be placed even further out of reach than it is now.

[Omitted here is the body of the Estimate.]

1. Source: Department of State, INR/EAP Files: Lot 90 D 165, NIE 52–7–74. Secret; No Foreign Dissemination; Controlled Dissemination. Only the précis of this six-page estimate is published.
2. The United States intelligence community estimated the likelihood of the continued existence of the Government of the Khmer Republic if it suffered the loss of its seat at the United Nations.