Office of the Historian

146. Memorandum From Director of Central Intelligence Helms to the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Kissinger)1

Washington, January 14, 1971.

SUBJECT

  • Potential Problems Which Might Affect U.S. Interests in Certain Countries Abroad

1. At the beginning of the year, I want to share with you some views we have about potentially fragile political situations in certain countries in Latin America, the Near East and Africa. Let me suggest that if you find these capsule assessments of sufficient interest, you may wish to have your staff make additional studies to determine whether certain diplomatic measures or other activity should be undertaken by the U.S. Government.

[Omitted here is material on Africa.]

7. Near East

Saudi Arabia represents the primary American strategic and economic interest in the Arab world today. Its foreign policy is consistently anti-communist. It grants the U.S. military overflight and landing privileges as well as bunkering facilities for naval vessels. The U.S. receives more than one-half billion dollars yearly in balance of payments from American oil earnings and export sales in Saudi Arabia, and some $150 million in Saudi funds are in medium and long-term American investments. In addition, American forces in Southeast Asia obtain approximately 85% of their refined oil from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf State of Bahrain. Finally, Saudi Arabia is a critical factor in protecting the major oil reserves of the Arabian Peninsula which total 48% of the Free World’s known reserves.

Anti-regime social and political dissidence in Saudi Arabia is widespread and growing, and there is little chance this trend can be reversed. Despite extensive arrests, known dissidents, particularly military officers, are still active both inside and outside Saudi Arabia.

[61/2 lines not declassified] We have not identified a specific plot to overthrow the Saudi regime during 1971, but we would not discount the possibility of a military coup d’etat during this period, particularly should King Faysal die or become too ill to rule.

[Omitted here is material on Latin America.]

  1. Source: National Archives, Nixon Presidential Materials, NSC Files, Box 1277, Saunders Files, Saudi Arabia. Secret; Sensitive.↩