740.5/10–2450: Telegram
The United States High Commissioner for Germany (McCloy) to the Secretary of State
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601. Personal for Byroade from McCloy. Following is an explanation paragraph 8 mytel 32151 discussed in your 2952, 19 October.
Estimate of one year was based upon composite individual German views and included time necessary to obtain agreement in principle NATO discussions between occupying powers and Germans of conditions [Page 402] for German contribution, necessary psychological preparations German people and steps by German Government to permit German contribution including some type of conscription legislation. Germans elongated governmental problem particularly in view of their emphasis upon proper selection of personnel and preparation of appropriate legislation. Our opinion of this estimate you will note stated that it was pessimistic and could be reduced by “at least” one third. We have in previous message indicated our opinion that if decision in principle is reached by 1st January, volunteer training could probably begin by 1st March. This conforms to your estimate. Our “at least one-third” was taking into consideration this possible course of events and enactment of conscription law.
However, do not see how time estimate expressed in 3215 would in any way affect pressing for an immediate decision. No substantial preparations or moves can be taken in Germany, either politically or psychologically until matter of principle settled with French, and the sooner this is done the sooner we can get started. Until French position settled, we cannot secure any official position of German Government. Consequence would be that German Federal Republic could not proceed in any real preliminary planning or organization, and we could not proceed with advanced program for training of Diensttruppen or cadres for possible German contingents.
We also believe that, depending, of course, upon type of proposal occupying powers discuss with Germans, that Bundestag approval might be obtained in matter of two to four months, the longer period reflecting the possible effectiveness of such elements as the Heinemann–Niemoller campaign.2 However, so much depends on type of proposition offered and manner of presentation that estimates difficult to make. Also agree that if decision in principle taken in reasonably near future, utilization of steps you outline make feasible having effective units in being by end of next year.
- Telegram 3215 from Frankfort, October 18, is not printed, but paragraph 8 is discussed in telegram 2952 of October 19, p. 394, and quoted in footnote 1 of that document.↩
- Campaign against rearmament, led by the Federal Minister of the Interior, Gustav Heinemann, and Protestant theologian Martin Niemöller.↩