891.00/12–845: Telegram
The Ambassador in Iran (Murray) to the Secretary of State
[Received 8:48 p.m.]
1096. I have just learned that on December 6 Iranian Government requested Soviets to permit Iranian column now halted outside Qazvin to proceed to Hamadan. Reasons for this move as given Embassy by General Arfa are that at Hamadan troops would have shelter and would still be in position to move to Azarbaijan via Kurdistan if Russian consent is obtained. Also says Hamadan which has no Iranian garrison at present is strategic location for defense against any southward move by “democrats”. Column could more easily return to Tehran than go to Hamadan but Arfa says withdrawal to capital would have bad effect on army morale especially troops in Azerbaijan.
I regret this Iranian action since it implies submission to Soviet refusal of permission for advance to Tabriz.
In talking to Colonel Baker yesterday Arfa expressed extremely pessimistic view of situation. Said he considers Tehran is now on northern frontier of Iran. Anticipates attempt by “democrats” with Russian help to cut off food supplies to capital. General staff is maintaining 24-hour watch against possible sudden move on Tehran by “democrat” forces. Arfa believes real civil war is almost inevitable since even if central government acquiesces in Azerbaijan autonomy, he says rebels will attempt extend their control southward and Government will be forced to fight.
We can not wholly discount this gloomy outlook in view of real weakness Iranian Army. … This meager force must be spread over area one-fifth that of US having poor communications and peopled in many sections by large and well-armed tribal groups. In northern sections it is virtually immobilized by Soviets whose combat strength in Iran alone is at least three times that of Iranian Army.
To Department as 1096, repeated Moscow 321, London 119.