891.00/10–145: Airgram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kennan) to the Secretary of State
[Received October 12—7 p.m.]
A–264. Tehran’s 242 September 24.32 Agreeing with Tehran’s analysis of Democratic Party of Azerbaijan we might, however, add that we feel regional nature of movement probably far outweighs its social reformist character.
Azerbaijan Party appears to conform to “Nationality” pattern previously observed in Bessarabia, Ruthenia and Eastern Poland and currently evident with respect to Sinkiang and Turkish Armenia. As in these other areas, Soviet fissionist technique seems to be based on racial affinities transcending Soviet border. Tempo and form of separatist action in Azerbaijan are impossible to predict as they will be opportunistically adapted to whole complex of Middle Eastern developments. Reassurances of respect for central authority (third sentence of our 3269 September 14) may be viewed with considerable skepticism. USSR demonstrated over many years in case of Outer Mongolia how other sovereignty (Chinese) could be recognized in an adjacent area without seriously impeding either Soviet program for real domination of that area or eventual realization of its “autonomy” through orderly processes of friendly negotiations.