761.67/11–145: Telegram

The Ambassador in Turkey ( Wilson ) to the Secretary of State

1399. Yesterday General Orbay, Turkish Chief of Staff, called on my Military Attaché and reviewed situation with him. Information furnished regarding Russian troop concentrations was same as that given by head of Turkish Military Intelligence (1371, Embassy’s October 27, noon) with three additional divisions reported as having moved in last few days from Czechoslovakia into Rumania. General Orbay considers his information very reliable as regards Bulgaria and Rumania; less reliable as regards Iran; and very fragmentary as regards Caucasus where his estimate is between 10 and 15 Russian divisions. His appraisal of situation as follows: Presence of Soviet troops in Balkans can be explained (a) strengthen control over those countries (b) exert pressure during elections (c) threat to Greece, or (d) action against Turkey. Soviet troops in Iran can be explained as due to Kurdish troubles or for use against Turkey. He is unable to find any reason for presence Soviet divisions in Caucasus other than possible use against Turkey.

General Orbay said he was faced with grave responsibility of whether he should recommend mobilization. Demobilization of 1922 class had been begun in order to get more men on farms where they are needed to reduce Army expenditures, and also because Turkey, as member of United Nations Organization, felt entitled to look to that organization for security. If, however, Turkish mobilization is to be effective it would have to take place before hostilities since transport facilities could be disrupted by initial bombing. Harriman formed impression that Orbay will not recommend mobilization at present but that he will do so if any alarming developments should take place from Soviet side.

In case aggression, General Orbay considers likely Soviets make a last effort through Thrace towards Straits as well as invasion east provinces but is not overlooking possibility of limited operation in eastern provinces.

Sent Department as 1399, to Moscow as 92.

Wilson