J.C.S.
Files
Report by the Combined Intelligence
Committee1
secret
Enclosure to C.C.S.
643/1
[Washington, September 9, 1944.]
Estimate of the Enemy Situation,
Pacific–Far East
the problem
1. To estimate the enemy situation and intentions in the Pacific and
Far East.
summary
2. Political and psychological. (See Appendix
“A.”) Japan has sought to enlist the support of her most populous
conquered areas by powerful propaganda and by grants of specious
independence. For the present, Japan desires to avoid war with the
U.S.S.R. in order to be free to direct all her energy against her
enemies.
As a result of their fundamental beliefs, the morale of the Japanese
populace, and especially of the armed forces, has remained
relatively high, but a continuing series of sharp defeats will tend
further to confuse and bewilder the Japanese. Such defeats, combined
with a collapse of Germany, might conceivably cause a reshuffling of
the ruling clique followed by an attempt to secure a negotiated
peace. Japanese propaganda has already shifted from self-assured
offensive to defensive.
3. Economic factors. (See Appendix “B.”)
Production of high-priority armament items such as aircraft may
continue to expand for some time, even though the rapid growth of
Japan’s basic industry has been levelling off since the beginning of
1944. Further substantial growth of the Japanese steel and other
basic industries is believed impossible in the light of the present
Japanese shipping position. Shipping is now barely adequate to
sustain current production rates in the basic industries, and
sinkings exceed launchings. The largest and most essential economic
commitment for shipping is within the Inner Zone.* Japan is continuing to develop raw material
sources in the Inner Zone in an attempt to achieve self-sufficiency
there, but is unlikely to achieve this goal. She is particularly
dependent on the Outer Zone for oil. Inner Zone production and
stockpiles of fuel oil are at best estimated as sufficient for about
nine months but may be much less. In other essential raw materials
not available in sufficient
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quantity in the Inner Zone, Japan is believed to have stockpiles
to carry her for longer periods.
Japan’s civilian supply position is stringent but not yet critical
with respect to food and is generally bad and deteriorating with
respect to other commodities, e.g., clothing.
4. Military factors. (See Appendix “C”)
Realizing that the war potential of her enemies is increasing much
more rapidly than her own, Japan has been compelled to adopt the
strategic defensive. She hopes that tenacious resistance along
successive lines of defense may eventually result in war weariness
and possible division among the United Nations, which would enable
her to conclude a satisfactory peace. In the past year her air force
has deteriorated in quality of personnel and has operated less
aggressively; her navy has suffered serious losses; only her ground
forces have maintained their strength and fighting qualities.
Although Japan will continue to use caution in the employment of her
air power and especially her battle fleet, we believe, nevertheless,
that Japan now intends to make vigorous efforts to resist any Allied
penetration of her inner defense line Japan–Formosa–Luzon–Mindanao.
Her ground forces will offer maximum resistance at all points with
little regard for losses; her air power will be committed to a scale
of defense proportionate to the strategic importance of each area,
and her battle fleet will attack should local circumstances develop
which seem to offer opportunity for an effective blow.
In the Bonins, at Palau, and at Halmahera local Japanese ground
forces will resist to the maximum extent of their capabilities, but
without strong naval and air support.
5. Intentions in specific areas. (See Appendix
“D.”)
- a.
- Japan Proper. As the war draws
nearer to Japan we may expect to find an increasingly large
percentage of her naval and air forces based nearby and all
home defenses considerably strengthened.
- b.
- Northern Pacific. Japan will
continue her present policy of gradually strengthening her
garrisons and other defenses in the Kuriles and Japanese
Sakhalin.
- c.
- Manchuria. In view of the Soviet
threat, Japan is unlikely to release any appreciable ground
forces from Manchuria unless they can be quickly restored.
She will continue to maintain a strong defensive position
there, but is unlikely to undertake any offensive action
unless she becomes convinced that the U.S.S.R. is about to
enter the war against her.
- d.
- China. We believe that the Japanese
are now conducting operations with the intentions of
neutralizing Allied air forces in China and also of
establishing overland communication from Manchuria to south
China. Japan hopes, by such moves, to improve her strategic
position in central and south China.
- e.
- Burma. The Japanese will continue
to attempt to deny the Allies a land route to China and to
maintain their position in Burma as an anchor for their
western perimeter defenses. They will only undertake limited
offensive action for the purpose of breaking up Allied
operations.
- f.
- Malaya–Sumatra. Although this area
is of great importance to the Japanese, both for its own
resources and as a barrier on the approaches to the South
China Sea from the west and south, we anticipate no
substantial reinforcement of it until a major threat is more
clearly apparent.
- g.
- East Indies. We believe that Japan
will maintain her hold on the East Indies as long as
possible, even though her sea communications should be
severed.
- h.
- Formosa–Luzon–Mindanao. The
Japanese are busily engaged in strenuous efforts to
reinforce this line. They will resist fiercely any
penetration of this line, particularly the Luzon–Formosa
area. They will accelerate the rate of reinforcement should
the Allies occupy the western Carolines.
- i.
- Central Pacific. In the Bonins, at
Palau, and at Halmahera local Japanese ground forces will
resist to the maximum extent of their capabilities, but
without strong naval and air support.
6. A detailed estimate of enemy order of battle and deployment will
be available as Annex “A” when required.2
Appendix “A”
Political and Psychological
Factors
- 1.
- External politics.
- a.
- General. Japan has
propounded two powerful propaganda themes: “Asia for
the Asiatics” and “The Co-Prosperity Sphere;” and
has adopted such relations with neighboring peoples
as she believes will contribute to the fulfillment
of her plans. Following are the steps which have
been taken, but they represent changes in form
rather than in substance.
- (1)
- Relations with China.
Japan has recognized the “independence” of China,
as represented by the Nanking puppet government,
and has sought to enlist Chinese nationalism in
support of that regime by surrendering to it
various foreign concessions, notably those at
Shanghai.
- (2)
- Relations with subject
peoples. Japan has granted “independence” to
Burma and the Philippines, seeking to enlist the
relatively developed nationalism of those
countries in her favor; she has hinted that other
occupied areas (e.g., Java) may receive similar
grants of “independence;” and she has rewarded
Thailand for cooperation by
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the cession of certain
neighboring territory to which Thailand had some
pretensions.
- b.
- Relations with the U.S.S.R.
There exists between Japan and the U.S.S.R. a basic
conflict of interest. Japan’s concept of strategic
security cannot be satisfied without gaining control
of the eastern region of Siberia. For the present,
however, Japan desires to avoid war with the
U.S.S.R. in order to be free to direct all her
efforts against her enemies.
- c.
- Relations with the Axis.
Japan’s connection with the Axis is a matter of
expediency only. Her action will be coordinated with
that of Germany only insofar as she believes that
such coordination will contribute to the realization
of her basic aims.
- 2.
- Psychology and morale. The
Japanese, traditionally, are an intensely nationalistic and
close knit family whose broad characteristics are a
toughness of fiber and a fatalistic singleness of purpose.
They have been taught that they are of divine origin, that
the Emperor is directly descended from the god-founder of
the nation and that the Japanese are divinely and infallibly
guided towards the establishment of a new world order. The
Japanese soldier is taught to give blind obedience and to
regard death in the service of the Emperor as an honor. He
is told that he is invincible and that to show weakness or
to surrender is to accept disgrace.
As a result of these teachings, the morale of the Japanese
populace, and especially of the armed forces, has remained high,
but the unfavorable course of the war has caused some
disillusionment. Moreover, since much of popular morale is based
upon the theory of invincibility, a series of sharp defeats, as
they are brought home to them, will tend further to confuse and
bewilder the people as a whole.
Real power in Japan rests in the hands of small groups of leaders
capable of exploiting the position of the Emperor. The collapse
of Germany will have a tremendously depressing effect upon such
leaders. This, combined with ever increasing United Nations
pressure and approach to the homeland, might conceivably bring
about a reshuffle of the ruling cliques followed by an attempt
to secure a negotiated peace.
Official propaganda on the home front has lost its self-assured
tone and determination to fight for existence is replacing
exaltation in victory. The potential of the United Nations is
admitted to be high, and the government has announced its
intention to prepare for the defense of the homeland. Japanese
withdrawals are admitted. It is implied that the Japanese have
finished winning independence for other Asiatic countries and
now must prepare to defend their own islands from frontal
attack. The government is also preparing the Japanese people for
more serious German reverses in Europe.
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Appendix “B”
Economic Factors
1. General. Though Japan may still be able
to increase production of certain high priority armament items,
e.g., aircraft, the expansion of her basic industry, which had
ceased by the end of 1943, almost certainly cannot be resumed
during this war. Lack of shipping is the most important limiting
factor on the expansion of basic industry. Japan still depends
on the Outer Zone for certain essential raw materials,
especially oil. The Japanese have partially succeeded in
reducing this dependence by stockpiling materials in the Inner
Zone where nearly all Japanese industry is concentrated. The
stockpiling program has fallen short because of lack of
shipping.
2. Shipping. Japan’s shipping position is
her most critical weakness and is deteriorating rapidly. We
estimate that Japan now has much less shipping than she needs to
carry out military commitments and at the same time to utilize
her industrial capacity to the full. This condition will grow
progressively worse. We believe, however, that Japan will not
voluntarily abandon any strategic outpost because of a shipping
stringency alone, but will accept a curtailment in her basic
over-all industrial production by reducing the import of raw
materials. Should the sinking rate increase, as it has increased
in recent months, the Japanese would be forced to accept this
import reduction proportionately sooner. Sufficient shipping
should be available, if necessary, by diversion from trade, for
essential troop movements.
We estimate that Japan will be unable to build more than 800,000
gross tons of steel merchant vessels in 1944, which is far
behind the rate required to replace losses, and that her ship
repair facilities are heavily overburdened. Great emphasis has
been placed on wooden shipbuilding, but this program is not
believed to be progressing as well as planned and could not, in
any event, offset the discrepancy between losses and
construction of steel ships. Japan’s shipping position would be
relatively easier were she cut off from the Outer Zone.
3. Petroleum and other raw materials. In
general, Japan’s industrial machine is dependent upon raw
materials which must come from outside Japan Proper and thus the
continuance of supply depends upon transportation. The most
essential raw material contribution from the Outer Zone is oil.
Other critical materials which Japan obtains from the Outer Zone
include nickel, chrome, iron ore, manganese, lead, copper, zinc,
bauxite and phosphates. Her dependence on the Outer Zone for
these materials is however less than in the case of oil either
because of the existence of relatively large stockpiles or the
possibility in some cases of increasing Inner Zone supplies or
of substituting other materials.
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Among petroleum products, Japan’s position
is weakest in fuel oil. Inner Zone production and stocks are
believed sufficient for about nine months and estimated present
over-all production roughly balances consumption at the present
calculated scale. Furthermore, about 75 percent of production is
in the East Indies. Japan is developing new synthetic facilities
in the Inner Zone, but present fuel oil output there would, we
estimate, operate her naval fleet and merchant marine at less
than one-third their present rate of activity, if stocks are not
drawn upon. In aviation gasoline, Japan is similarly dependent
upon the East Indies, 80 percent coining from there, but stocks,
chiefly in the Inner Zone, are believed sufficient for somewhat
more than a year at the present rate of consumption.
Japan’s tanker fleet has been reduced far
below the minimum tonnage required to move fuel oil and aviation
gas out of the East Indies to all consumption centers, and the
deficit has been only partially offset by diversion of dry cargo
vessels to oil-carrying. We believe that Japan will continue
this diversion at the expense of other cargoes in order to keep
the oil line full and moving.
Although about 20 percent of Japan’s iron
ore is now derived from Outer Zone areas, we believe
that Inner Zone production, most of which is outside Japan
Proper, could fill all essential needs. Nearly all of Japan’s
coal supply is in the Inner Zone, but
more than 50 percent of it lies outside of Japan Proper. Thus
iron ore and coal constitute the greatest burden of Japanese
shipping. Japan is almost completely dependent on north China
and Manchuria for coking coal since the supplies available to
her elsewhere are generally of too poor quality to make high
grade coke without the admixture of the coal from north
China.
Stockpiles of bauxite and the possibility
of producing alumina from inferior ores in the Inner Zone reduce
Japan’s dependence on bauxite supplies from Bintan Island
(Malaya) and Indochina. Though Japan’s copper stockpile is relatively small, she produces
more than half her requirements at home. The lead stockpile, supplemented by Inner Zone production,
would last at least a year. Japan’s zinc
position is more stringent; the Inner Zone produces not more
than two-thirds of Japan’s requirements and stocks are believed
to be low.
Japan’s major source of nickel is Celebes
and if this source were cut off her position would be difficult.
A conservative use pattern probably has been observed, however,
and we believe that the full effects would not be felt in less
than a year. The first results of a sharp reduction in use of
nickel would be impairment of the quality of war material.
In chromium and manganese, Japan’s position is believed to be somewhat
better. For both, Inner Zone production, plus stocks, is
believed sufficient for more than a year’s consumption. The
Philippines
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are the
major source of both, contributing a large portion of new
chromium and nearly 40 percent of the new manganese.
The comparative dependence of Japan on specific Outer Zone areas
is in the following order:
Sumatra: |
Fuel oil and aviation gasoline. |
Borneo: |
Fuel oil. |
Philippine Islands: |
Chrome, manganese, copper. |
Celebes: |
Nickel. |
Bintan Island: |
Bauxite. |
4. Industry. Japanese industrial
production expanded generally up to the beginning of 1944, when
it levelled off because of basically restrictive factors (e.g.,
lack of shipping) which the Japanese are not expected to
overcome during this war. However, production of certain high
priority finished products, such as aircraft, continues to
increase. Japan will attempt to increase the production of such
instruments as fire control gear, radar, and other types of
precision electrical equipment, but because of technical and
organizational difficulties, we believe that she will not be
able to accomplish any great expansion in this field. There is
still a slight cushion in consumer and civilian goods which can
be sacrificed in all out efforts to increase the production of
military armaments. Japanese industry is almost wholly
concentrated in Inner Zone areas (southern Hokkaido, central
Honshu, northern Kyushu, northern Korea, southern Manchuria and
Formosa). Finished munitions production is heavily concentrated
in Honshu, although Manchurian industry, with help from Japan
Proper, largely supports the Japanese Army in Manchuria.
5. Food. The 1944 rice consumption in the
Inner Zone is higher than anticipated because of reduced wheat
and barley crops. For this and other reasons, we now believe
that Japanese rice reserves are uncomfortably low and that Japan
must next year depend upon shipments from Indochina and Thailand
for an essential portion of rice supplies. Food rations can be
reduced without causing actual starvation or serious political
consequences, but any reduction will result in decreased
industrial efficiency and further deterioration of public
health.
Appendix “C”
Military Factors
1. General. The rapid build-up and advance
of Allied forces in the Central and South Pacific have brought
home to Japan the realization that she must prepare to meet
steadily increasing Allied strength. In addition, Japan’s
relations with the U.S.S.R. are uneasy because of the ever
present fear that one day that country may join the forces
arrayed against her. Forced to accept the strategic defensive,
Japan
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is attempting to
consolidate and make secure her greatly expanded empire. She is
developing successive defense lines to hold off her enemies in
the hope that they, wearied by the war in Europe and perhaps
divided among themselves, will attack her ineffectively or
compromise to her advantage.
2. Air forces. The Japanese Air Force
finds itself totally unable to match the constantly growing
strength of our opposing air forces and is irrevocably committed
to a strategic defensive role. Strictly offensive operations
have become progressively more limited in scope and less
frequent. Meanwhile, the highest priority is being given to
aircraft production, and latest estimates suggest that at least
1200 combat aircraft are now being produced each month. A
strenuous effort is being made to overcome qualitative
inferiority by better protective armament, greater fire power,
self-sealing fuel tanks, and engines of increased power. Already
there has been a marked improvement in the quality of Japanese
fighter aircraft. All available indications show that the combat
efficiency of the Japanese Air Force is at present suffering
seriously from a shortage of fully trained and experienced
pilots and crews. Currently expanded facilities for individual
and group training are being completed, but in periods of high
attrition the Japanese will find it difficult to provide
replacement of effectively trained personnel. We believe that a
combination of difficulties will make it impossible for Japan’s
air forces to improve materially their present qualitative
inferiority so long as continued and heavy pressure is brought
against her.
Although the Allies will probably meet increasingly strong
numerical air resistance as they attack successive lines of
defense, the scale and duration encountered at each point of
attack is likely to be conditioned by Japan’s intention to
preserve air strength for the final defense of those areas which
she considers vital to the defense of the homeland and its
critical supply lines.
3. Naval forces. Japan’s naval strength is
inadequate for the defense of her outer perimeter. She is only
able to concentrate portions of her fleet at a few strategic
bases to parry thrusts at key points of her defense line. Allied
strength is denying the Japanese Fleet the use of all but a
small part of the Pacific Ocean. With her present relatively
small operational fleet, Japan does not dare risk possible heavy
attrition by launching any major offensives. Although she is
striving to increase her fleet strength by new units, the
appearance of such new ships has been so rare as to suggest
difficulties in the outfitting of such forces. We believe that
Japan is primarily engaged in building small escort vessels to
counter the heavy toll of merchant ships taken by our
submarines.
We believe that in the future the Japanese will deploy their
fleet so as to be able better to meet readily the next estimated
Allied blow.
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With
their fleet concentrated in the Celebes Sea the Japanese had
hoped to counter vigorously Allied thrusts at the Philippines.
Subsequent to the battle of the eastern Philippines the main
elements of the fleet were obliged to retire for reequipping and
reorganization. As a result of the threat to the Bonins and the
homeland, developed by our advance to the Marianas, the Japanese
are likely to dispose their heavy surface units along the
Kyushu–Formosa line. However, the fuel oil situation, the
shipping stringency and Allied air power will have a bearing on
ultimate fleet deployment.
While the Japanese Fleet suffered a heavy loss of aircraft and
some carrier units in the recent battle of the eastern
Philippines, Japan still retains a battle fleet of considerable
power. Despite recent actions we believe that while the Japanese
High Command will be cautious in the use of their battle fleet,
they will continue to make vigorous efforts to oppose any Allied
penetrations of the line Japan–Formosa–Luzon–Mindanao. The main
considerations governing the strength, disposition, and
employment of Japanese naval units opposing our advance are:
local control of the air, strength of Allied forces, and the
time factor. If, at any time, the Japanese should gain local
control of the air, which is unlikely, we must expect heavy
attacks upon our units by task forces composed of carriers,
battleships, cruisers, etc. Lacking such air control or strong
land-based air cover, the Japanese would use some carriers to
attempt attacks on our flanks, and also light task forces might
attempt night surface torpedo attacks. We can expect the
Japanese to be cautious in all-out attacks on a vastly superior
force, such attacks only materializing if local control of the
air has been established. The element of timing will be affected
by the rapidity with which the High Command reaches the
conclusion that an actual occupation is threatened. In any
event, our carriers will be the primary target for enemy
aircraft, with our transports as secondary. Our transports will
be the primary target for enemy surface forces, with our own
striking forces as secondary.
4. Ground forces. Japan’s greatest armed
strength lies in her large, fairly equipped and very well
trained army. Because of the nature of the war in the Pacific to
date, the United Nations have been unable to inflict any serious
attrition on the over-all strength of the Japanese ground
forces, which are as strong or stronger than in 1941.
At the present time the Japanese army ground forces total
approximately 3,500,000 men. These troops are organized into
about 85 divisions plus many independent units and garrisons,
which have been so deployed that Japan now maintains a strong
strategically defensive position. In addition, Japan has
organized in Manchuria and China puppet units totaling
approximately 300,000 and 400,000 men respectively. The
strongest concentrations of forces are in Japan Proper,
Manchuria and China. Since United Nations forces have
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begun to threaten
seriously Japan’s position in the Central and Southwestern
Pacific areas, Japan has accelerated her preparations for the
defense of the vital East Indies and has reinforced her southern
forces, particularly in the Philippines area.
The formation of puppet units has been general throughout
Japanese occupied territory, but only on a large scale in
Manchuria and China. Puppet troops in other areas have been
formed primarily for purposes of political propaganda, and their
military value to Japan has been negligible. The actual value of
the Manchurian and Chinese puppet troops to Japan cannot be
accurately assessed. They are only lightly equipped and,
although some have been used in combat against the Chinese, the
majority of them have had relatively little training. They are
at present being used mainly as garrison units and for the
maintenance of order in Japanese occupied territory. Because
their loyalty is doubtful, it is unlikely that the Japanese
would use them in a major engagement against well trained and
equipped troops.
We believe that Japan intends to maintain generally the present
strategic disposition of her ground forces after further
substantial reinforcement of Formosa and the Philippines.
Appendix “D”
Military Intentions in
Specific Areas
1. Japan Proper. As the war draws nearer
to Japan, we may expect to find an increasingly large percentage
of Japan’s heavy naval forces based in contiguous waters to
protect the home islands and the essential transport routes
between the home islands and the rest of the Inner Zone.
Similarly, a large percentage of Japan’s total combat aircraft,
particularly fighters, will be kept at bases in the homeland to
protect against bombing of the concentrations of Japanese
armaments production there. Also the formation of new divisions
will be expedited and Japanese home defenses strengthened.
2. Northern Pacific. In view of the
American position in the Aleutian Islands and the possibility of
eventual Allied air and naval action from Soviet bases in
Kamchatka and Soviet Sakhalin, Japan will continue her present
policy of strengthening her defenses in the Kuriles and Japanese
Sakhalin.
3. Manchuria. Japan has built up in
Manchuria a large and highly developed army. It is largely
sustained by Manchurian agricultural and industrial production,
which is developing more rapidly than any other section of the
Japanese Empire. The purpose of this army is to provide a force
of sufficient strength to protect Manchuria from any Soviet
threat and also to provide a striking force powerful enough to
attack Siberia and the Maritime Provinces should Japan consider
the
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latter course to
be necessary. The Japanese High Command has abandoned hope of
any German victory. Japan must appreciate that following peace
with Germany, Soviet military capabilities in the Far East will
increase progressively and, in fact, the initiative along the
Manchurian border will eventually pass to the U.S.S.R. In view
of the Soviet threat, Japan is unlikely to release any
appreciable forces from Manchuria unless they can be quickly
restored. She will continue to maintain a strong defensive
position there, but is unlikely to undertake any offensive
action unless she becomes convinced that the U.S.S.R. is about
to enter the war against her.
4. China. Allied air action from China is
increasingly menacing Japan’s present economic and defensive
position, and the Japanese are taking stronger counter measures
by the occupation and neutralization of some of the more
accessible Allied bases.
The Japanese have now completed military operations between the
Yangtze and Yellow Rivers and are in process of consolidating
their position in this newly captured territory while
reconstructing the railroad line linking Hankow with Peking. The
primary objective of current operations south of the Yangtze is
to deny to the Allies air bases in southeastern China. In order
to accomplish this we believe that they intend to occupy the
railway line between Hengyang and Kweilin and also eventually to
establish overland communications between their forces in
central and south China by occupation of the railroad line
between Hengyang and Canton.
The Japanese have the capability of successfully carrying out
these intentions. Whether or not they will commit sufficient
forces for the final completion of such operations may however
be influenced by the rapidly increasing threat from the Pacific.
We believe that the Japanese do not intend to weaken the ground
forces they now have based in China unless in due course some of
these divisions are urgently required for the defense of Japan
Proper or Formosa.
5. Burma. The main object of Japanese
operations in Burma will be to contain large Allied forces in
terrain favorable to the Japanese and to prevent the reopening
of the land route to China. The Japanese will, when possible,
continue to undertake limited offensive action designed to break
up Allied offensive preparations and to divert as large a part
as possible of the forces of the Southeast Asia Command.
6. Malaya–Sumatra. This area is of great
importance to the Japanese, both for its own resources and as a
barrier on the approaches to the South China Sea from the west
and south. The Japanese, however, presumably consider their
present strength there adequate to meet any threat likely to
arise during 1944. In view of their preoccupation with more
immediate threats to Japan Proper, Formosa, and the Philippines
from the Pacific and by air from China, as well as the
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potential threat from
Siberia, we anticipate no substantial reinforcement of
Malaya–Sumatra until a threat to that area is more clearly
apparent, and then only as may be warranted by the then existing
over-all situation.
7. East Indies. We believe that Japan will
not in any circumstances voluntarily relinquish her hold upon
the East Indies, but will continue to maintain in the area the
strong ground forces which already have been deployed for their
defense. Although the Japanese in due time will appreciate that
their sea communications to the Indies may be severed, they will
consider the continued denial of the area to the United Nations
forces as of such strategic importance as to warrant the
sacrifice of forces stationed there.
8. Formosa–Luzon–Mindanao. Currently the
Japanese are engaged in strenuous efforts to reinforce and build
up ground, air and naval defenses in these areas. Allied attack
upon any part of the line will be fiercely resisted by all
forces immediately available, the scale and intensity of such
resistance progressively increasing from the southern to the
northern part of this strong eastern defense to the vital line
of sea communications with the East Indies. Although Allied
occupation of Mindanao would greatly increase the threat to
Japan’s position, the occupation of Luzon would make the passage
of shipping through the South China Sea highly precarious, while
the capture of Formosa would substantially sever all sea
communications to the south and in addition offer a strong base
for direct assault upon Japan Proper. We believe that the
Japanese intend to have deployed in the immediate future all
forces which they consider can be spared for the defense of the
southern Philippines, whereas land and air strength in Luzon and
Formosa will continue to build up at an accelerated rate should
the Allies occupy the Palaus.
9. Central Pacific. In the Bonins, at
Palau, and at Halmahera local Japanese ground forces will resist
to the maximum extent of their capabilities, but without strong
naval and air support. The scale of naval resistance will be
governed by the number of their own land-based aircraft
immediately available, the strength and dispositions of our own
forces, and the time at which they determine that further
occupation is threatened.