Food Administrator’s File
The Food Administrator ( Hoover ) to the Food Administration Representative at London ( Sheldon )
With regard to the various estimates of the position of wheat exports from the United States, I would like to say that, disregarding altogether the calculations made in London as at the 1st of November, we can now approach the whole matter as from the 1st of January.
From your analysis I gather that you consider the total Canadian export surplus from this year’s harvest to be 140,000,000 from which must be deducted 20,000,000 carry-over as at July 1 and 30,000,000 exports to January 1, leaving a net exportable balance on January 1 of 90,000,000 bushels.
On the other hand inasmuch as there has been exported from the United States out of last harvest and up to January 1 fully 60,000,000 bushels, I think you will agree with me that the theoretical export surplus from the United States is rather more than fully exhausted on the 1st of January and that on a statistical basis we have only to deal with the 90,000,000 bushels of Canadian wheat.
From Barnes programme for January, February, March and April, a total amount of 1,565,000 tons, which is mostly flour, is proposed to be exported from United States supplies to Allies, or say 70,000,000 bushels of wheat. Such an export from the United States is obviously a bet on results of our conservation and while I have every hope that the measures which we have adopted and that we will still further strengthen will result in such a surplus I do not think we are justified in allowing this export without a reservation, and that we should regard this export as an advance to Allies to be replaced from Canadian stocks already in United States or from further shipments to United States upon our demand if it should prove necessary in order to maintain our flour supplies until next harvest. We will make no such demand unless it is critically necessary.
Will you add to Lord Rhondda that as at January 1 we are making a survey of wheat in farmers’ hands and at that time will revise the above accordingly.