File No. 893.00/2736
Minister Reinsch to the Secretary of State
Peking, October 12, 1917.
Sir: I have the honor to report on the political situation as follows:
1. The election of members of the National Council is proceeding and it is expected that the Council will assemble at the appointed time (November 1). Preparations for the election of the succeeding Parliament have also begun to be made; although the definite arrangements will have to wait the determinations of the National Council with respect to the size and the mode of election of the coming Parliament.
[Page 108]2. The so-called provisional military Government under Sun Yatsen in Canton thus far exists only in name. It could become of real importance only if the differences between the northern and southern military should not be settled, in which case the latter might fall back upon and utilize the organization attempted by Sun Yatsen and his followers. For reference in connection with this, there is herewith enclosed despatch No. 42 dated September 13 of the Consulate General at Canton.4
3. The southern military party under the leadership of General Lu Yung-ting and Governor Chien Pi-kung of Kwangtung, is still maintaining its attitude of opposition to the Central Government. Military action even is taking place between troops of the two parties in southern Hunan. The questions which divide these parties are, however, largely personal. The southern Generals demand the removal of Governor Fu Liang-tso of Hunan, a representative of Premier Tuan; and the Central Government has held out hopes that General Fu might be recalled in a short time. The controversy therefore has little to do with public policy, and is rather one of personal differences involving rivalries among the different military factions and opposition on the part of the South to the strengthening of the personal control exercised by the Premier as Minister of War.
In this connection I have the honor to report that the Premier has in recent conversations explained to me his general policy. It is his purpose that the military power in China should be made national and unified in order that the peace of the country cannot be at all times disturbed by local military commanders. When the military power has been thus unified, it is the intention of the Premier to take it entirely out of politics and to devote it to its proper military purposes. It is his purpose that when the Army can no longer be used for factional disputes, to leave the public men of civil life entirely free to settle the questions of the Constitution of the Government including Parliament, and of public policy. This is undoubtedly an enlightened programme and if it could actually be carried out in the sense in which the Premier now presents it, it would unify China and liberate the activities of political life. I believe that the Premier is sincere in his efforts. His opponents, however, fear that a consolidated military power would after all be used politically to accomplish the reestablishment of Yuan Shih-kai’s system of military dictatorship.
4. As the controversy between the northern and southern military centres about the personal influence and power of Premier Tuan, it was believed by many that the Acting President, General Feng Kuochang would have the forces in central China who support him, observe an attitude of neutrality while of course outwardly supporting the authority of the Central Government. It would appear, however, that the Acting President and Premier are continuing to cooperate. It is considered possible that General Tuan may temporarily withdraw for the sake of harmony; but his prestige and the confidence in his integrity are great and have been gaining in strength constantly, so that it would appear likely that General Tuan will [Page 109] surely continue to play a leading part, and that his withdrawal might be a step towards his accession to the Presidency at the next election. Younger men of great ability in the Government, who have little confidence in the power of the old-time leaders to do anything for China, look to General Tuan as the man under whose leadership they would have the greatest opportunity to build up the Government. The strength of General Tuan lies however, not so much in constructive ability or knowledge of men or administrative talent, in all of which he is not deemed eminent, but in wisdom and in honesty of purpose.
For your information, concerning the situation in Hunan, there are enclosed copies of despatches No. 165 and No. 166 from the Consul at Changsha. The former, and the last paragraph of the letter are specially informing.4
I have [etc.]