No. 110.
Mr. Davis
to Mr. Fish.
Berlin, January 4, 1877. (Received January 22.)
Sir: I hoped that the close of the Constantinople conference would afford ground for more favorable prognostications than I have been forced to indulge in for some months past. However, such is not the case. The new year opens unfavorably.
This is the last day of the meeting of the delegates in the conference. Up to this morning there are no favorable private advices, either at the foreign office or at the British embassy. I have just been to each in order to send the latest news.
At the foreign office it is thought that the Grand Vizier may possibly resign, but that in no event will the Sultan yield: that the Turks may try for more time; but that the present answer will be a positive refusal to nine of the points presented by the powers, including the all-important one of guarantees.
At the British embassy it is likewise supposed that the refusal will be absolute. I gain there the additional information that a rupture of diplomatic relations will not follow. The ambassadors are to leave Constantinople, but all, including the Russian, are to leave charges in charge. This fact is important as showing that an immediate war is not expected. The armistice between the Turks and the insurgents having been prolonged, the fact that Russia leaves a chargé at Constantinople shows that peace is to continue for the present. In fact, as I have already had occasion to say to the Department, Russia is not yet ready for war. No one abandons the hope of peace. With everybody wanting it and two months secured for further negotiations, it is quite within the range of possibility that it may still be secured, but one cannot honestly say that the outlook is hopeful.
On the side of Russia, all parties bear testimony to her moderation in these negotiations. Mr. Von Bülow speaks in high terms of General Ignatieff. But she cannot be expected to give up everything.
On the part of Turkey, the mob at Constantinople is represented to be warlike and excited. It is even said that should the Sultan accept the work of the conference, it would cost him his throne. There is no doubt that the Turks have conceived the idea that no matter what the attitude of England may be in the conference, in war she must side with Turkey. It is easy to conceive the power of such an idea on an Oriental mind.
I do not think that Lord Salisbury has done anything to foster such an opinion. Whatever his views may have been on leaving England, his personal intercourse with the statesmen of the continent on his way to Constantinople convinced him that England could look for no help from them in a war with Russia. It is fair to suppose that this conviction helped shape his course at Constantinople. Mr. Von Bülow bears strong testimony to his constant efforts in the direction of peace. Looking back, however, upon the rejection of the Berlin memorandum in London, the dispatch of the fleet to Besika Bay, and the incendiary speeches of Lord Beaconsfield, one is not entirely surprised at the tenacity with which the Turks adhere to their opinion.
[Page 175]Whether the conference is or is not to end now has not yet been decided. The French and Italian representatives desire to continue it at some other place. The English seem to think it may as well drop.
Nobody gives heed to the patent constitution which the Sultan has picked up in Belgium and proclaimed in Turkey. _______ _______ thinks it a good constitution for a law-abiding people like the Belgians, but not worth much in Turkey, where, he says, a man may think himself Well off if he keeps his head on his shoulders and his wife and daughters are not violated.
I have, &c.,