The attached short paper provides a different perspective on world
population growth which may interest you. Richard Benedick used it as a basis for discussion with
Vatican officials last September and January and more recently with
William Wilson.2 The paper was prepared with the
informal collaboration of moral theologians and other concerned
Catholics.
Richard and I would welcome about an hour of your time to discuss foreign
policy implications of these issues and the role of the State Department
in managing U.S. international policies in this area. For your further
information, I am also attaching a memorandum summarizing the
Department’s role and some current major issues.
As a possible agenda for our talk, I would suggest the following
items:
1. World population growth and implications for U.S. policy.
2. State Department role/interagency coordination/relations with AID.
3. United Nations Fund for Population Activities and private organization
activities.
4. Biomedical research/natural family planning.
5. Vatican dialogue.
6. China—cooperative social science research.
Attachment 1
Paper Prepared by the Coordinator of Population
Affairs, Bureau for Oceans and Environmental and Scientific
Affairs, Department of State (Benedick)
Washington, September 1980
SOME NOTES ON WORLD POPULATION GROWTH
—There is no precedent in the history of mankind for the numbers
being added to the world’s population: between now and the end of
the century, the world’s population will probably grow from the
current 4.4 billion to over 6 billion—an increase in only 20 years
which is almost as much as the entire world population as recently
as 1930. Ninety percent of this growth will occur in the low-income
countries.
—These factors are condemning hundreds of millions of people—chiefly
women and children—to lives of physical and spiritual degradation,
and often mental retardation. World Health Organization studies
demonstrate that the health of mothers and children is adversely
affected by pregnancies too early and too late in life, by close
spacing of children, and by higher numbers of births (beyond three).
UNICEF reports that millions
of unwanted children are being abandoned each year by
parents—especially in Latin America—to lives of vice and misery on
the streets.
—There is a built-in momentum to this population growth which compels
a sense of urgency to attempts to address the problem. Consider, for
example, Mexico, with a 1975 population of under 70 million: If a
two-child family norm could be achieved by the year 2000, Mexico’s
population would still continue to grow for several decades, before
stabilizing at around 175 million. If, however, the two-child norm
were reached only 20 years later (i.e., by 2020), demographic
momentum would carry the eventual stabilized population to
approximately 270 million!
—It is open to question whether the population of this planet may
stabilize at 9–10 billion, or at 12 billion or more. In a world
characterized by growing scarcities and strains on biological and
environmental systems, numbers such as these have portentous
implications for the future of mankind—perhaps for the very survival
of the human race. It is not primarily a problem of distribution;
countries cannot achieve meaningful economic and social development
when they are on a treadmill, struggling to provide the basic
necessities of existence to constantly growing numbers of
people.
—At this stage in human evolution, survival of the human race is no
longer menaced, as in the historical past, by too few numbers. [Page 727] Indeed, the wholly modern
pressure of population begins to affect delicate balances in the
environment, and to conflict with our responsibility for stewardship
of the earth.
—Under these circumstances, moral issues of past centuries bear
re-examination. It may, for example, be asked whether the human
race, taken as a whole, has a moral right to continue procreating in
a way which threatens the opportunity for future generations to
achieve human dignity and justice and to realize their spiritual
potential.
—As expressed by Pope John Paul II in Redemptor
Hominis,5 the Catholic Church has a transcendent
role in looking beyond the immediate future, to the coming
millenium, in searching for ways to conserve the environment and to
secure the dignity of man and the education of the generations to
come. Therefore, the Church is in a unique position to offer a
positive and realistic response to the major social and human issues
of our day.
—The Catholic Church’s position with respect to the modern phenomenon
of population growth thus has important implications for its
teaching mission, for its role in the ecumenical movement, for the
conditions of life of hundreds of millions of women and children,
and for future generations on this planet. In the sacrament of
marriage, the conscientious choice of fewer children may be seen not
as selfishness, but rather as responsible parenthood: increasing the
capability of fathers and mothers to bestow more attention,
spiritual guidance, education, time, and love on each individual
child—as well as contributing to the greater good of humanity on a
finite planet.
—Natural family planning, while an ideal method in many respects, may
not be effective or feasible in every situation. It seems reasonable
to respect the motivation and conscience of husbands and wives in
choosing the number of their offspring, within a modern context of
human dignity and reverence for life. Under these circumstances, as
in other areas of morality recognized in Church teachings,
scientifically approved means of fertility regulation may come to be
regarded as the lesser of two evils.
—The United States, although a secular state, shares many of the
concerns of the Church in looking toward a future of hope and better
life for the coming generations. On a planet of finite resources, we
will all face unprecedented dilemmas in the future. We welcome a
dialogue on these fundamental issues, including economic and social
development, maternal and child health, excessive population growth,
rapid urbanization, problems of the aged, etc.
Attachment 2
Paper Prepared in the Department of
State
Washington, February 20, 1981
SUBJECT
- The State Department Role in International Population
Policy
In recognition of the serious implications of world population growth
for U.S. foreign policy objectives of peace and stability, the State
Department was assigned, by President Nixon, the central
responsibility for (1) formulation of U.S.
international population policies, and (2) efforts to enhance the effectiveness of U.S.,
international, and national programs in this area. This
responsibility is exercised through the Coordinator of Population
Affairs, reporting to the OES
Assistant Secretary and assisted by a small staff of Foreign Service
Officers. The intragovernmental framework for policy development is
an eighteen-member committee, established under an NSC mandate and chaired by the
Assistant Secretary for OES.
Specific functions of the Coordinator in exercising these
responsibilities include:
1) Directing activities of the interagency committee, and producing
an annual report to the President which is the basic national policy
document on international population matters.
2) Maintaining head-of-agency and senior policy-level contacts with
AID, HHS, and with the United Nations Fund for Population
Activities (UNFPA), World Bank,
WHO, FAO, and other
international institutions.
3) Participating in the AID budget
process and providing testimony before Congress on U.S.
international population policies and programs.
4) Representing the U.S. at the UN
Population Commission, UNFPA
Governing Council, and other international meetings.
5) Keeping population at the forefront of the world’s agendas, and
contributing to a strengthening of international consensus on
population issues through:
—promoting and undertaking head-of-state and senior policy-level
contacts on population with foreign governments;
—seeking appropriate treatment of population issues and
action-oriented resolutions on population at relevant international
conferences;
—public statements and speeches by senior Administration officials
and by the Coordinator;
[Page 729]
—briefings of U.S. Ambassadors and senior officials.
6) Maintaining liaison with nongovernmental organizations,
universities and research institutions, and serving as spokesman for
U.S. policy.
Attached for your further information are copies of (a) a recent
memorandum to Secretary Haig
on this subject, (b) testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations
Committee, providing more details on U.S. policy and the linkage to
national security, (c) the last NSC
Annual Report, containing policy recommendations and a survey of
world population trends and programs, (d) my recent statement at the
United Nations, published by the National Catholic Documentary
Service.6
Following are brief descriptions of current major issues.
1.
AID Population
Assistance
The AID population budget—which
covers assistance to governments in establishing and implementing
population/family planning programs, training, commodities, and
research—has been stagnating since 1979 at around $200 million
annually, or about five percent of total U.S. foreign aid. This has
meant serious cuts, in real terms, in many valuable programs, coming
ironically at a time when LDC’s are
increasingly recognizing the need to limit population growth.
—In the current FY 1982 budget exercise, and in preparations for FY
1983, the Department should pressure AID to accord highest priority to population
assistance, without which other aid is undercut by the effects of
rapid population growth.
2.
UN Fund for
Population Activities (UNFPA)
The leading multilateral agency, with a current program of about $150
million ($32 million from the U.S.), faces similar problems of
flagging donor support and inability to meet growing LDC requests for assistance. A problem
here is within AID: at a time of
budget stringency, there are strong pressures to divert resources
from UNFPA to bilateral programs.
A strong multilateral agency is important to us, because it can
operate in countries where bilateral population programs might be
too sensitive, and because of its multiplier effect as the major
channel for other donors’ support. We are currently engaged with
AID in an appraisal of UNFPA, aimed at the Governing
Council meeting in June which will consider the UNFPA’s role for the 1980’s. (I will
be head of the U.S. delegation at this meeting.)
—We need to complete this exercise, ensure a fair share for UNFPA within AID’s budget, continue efforts to
improve effectiveness of UNFPA
programs, and encourage support of other donors.
[Page 730]
3. Biomedical Research
Deficiencies of existing methods of regulating fertility from the
standpoints of safety, acceptability, and effectiveness lead to high
discontinuance rates, which substantially offset the efforts
expended on motivation for smaller families and on provision of a
service delivery infrastructure. Yet, global expenditures for
research in reproduction—mostly in the U.S.—are also stagnating, and
amount to only one or two percent of total biomedical research—which
bears no relation to the potential benefits of a breakthrough in
this field. It is imperative to increase research funding in order
to expand the options, follow up on currently promising leads, adapt
existing methods to the particular physiological and social
circumstances of LDC’s, and attract
high-quality scientific talent to the field. Private industry cannot
be expected to fill the gap because of the unprofitability of an
“ideal contraceptive.”
—In an effort to upgrade the international priority of
product-oriented biomedical research, we have stimulated UNFPA to take first steps toward
establishing a new international coordinating mechanism; we need to
follow up on this initiative with the World Bank, WHO, foundations, and other potential
donors.
4. Venice Summit Follow-Up
The U.S. was successful in placing the population growth problem in
the agenda and communiqué of the Venice Summit last June. Follow-up
activities, in preparation for the Ottawa Summit, are directed at
raising the priority of population in the diplomacy and aid policies
of our Allies, specifically:
—examining the adequacy of aid in this sector, related to growing
interest by LDC’s and potential for
expansion of UNFPA;
—raising the priority for product-oriented biomedical research,
possibly through the mechanism discussed above;
—appointment of a policy-level official within their governments to
manage and promote diplomatic and aid activities in population
(similar to OES/CP).
5. China
Establishment of formalized cooperation with China in the population
field under the Science and Technology Agreement would be an
important signal both to LDC’s and
other donor countries. There is much to learn from the Chinese
experience which might be transferable to other LDC’s. We would also hope to
collaborate with China in keeping population high on the agendas of
various UN forums; China’s relations
with the Third World, particularly Africa, are an important
favorable factor.
Last fall, OES sponsored a one-day
workshop at the National Academy of Sciences on population research
in China, which attracted schol[Page 731]ars from throughout the U.S., and which
resulted in a recommendation that population be included under the
S&T Agreement. Social science research, demography, population
policies, and program administration could be the subject of a new
protocol involving the Department and the National Academy of
Sciences. The Chinese Government has invited a Department-led
mission in April to negotiate modalities of a cooperative research
agreement. U.S. demographers/social scientists of international
reputation have agreed to join this delegation, including Ansley
Coale of Princeton, Parker Mauldin of the Rockefeller Foundation,
Allan Rosenfield of Columbia, and Wendy Baldwin, head of Social
Science Research at NIH’s Center
for Population Research.
6. Vatican
Over a year ago, with the support of U.S. Special Envoy Robert
Wagner, and following careful preparations with Churchmen and moral
theologians, I initiated a dialogue on population with Vatican
officials. These discussions, which have reached high policy levels,
including the Foreign Minister, Cardinals, and Bishops, have been
cordially received, and the Vatican has welcomed exchange of
demographic and scientific material and a continuation of contacts;
last September, I also left with the Vatican an informal aide memoire on moral aspects of the
population growth problem.7 I have also pushed AID to new activities in natural family planning—a fact
which was favorably noted by the Vatican. Further cooperation with
the Vatican could be useful in limiting their opposition in
international forums (a recent example was the UN Population Commission), and should
contribute to a better appreciation of the problem among Vatican
policymakers. (The National Catholic Documentary Service recently
published, with favorable commentary, the full text of my plenary
statement at the UN Population
Commission—attached.)
—We will need to discuss this issue with the President’s new Special
Envoy, William A. Wilson, and consider next steps in this
relationship.
7. International Consensus Activities
a) Proposed 1984 World Population Conference:
At the UN Population Commission this
month, we succeeded in obtaining a resolution recommending an
economical and issue-focused conference, which hopefully could be
designed to avoid political polemics and concentrate on substantive
matters.8 The broad support among LDC’s at the Commission for this kind
of conference was encouraging; the Soviet Union was isolated in
opposition. We need to monitor preparations for the confer[Page 732]ence—including potential
costs—and decide at this spring’s ECOSOC whether to pass the recommendation on to the
General Assembly.
b)
UN
Agencies: We will explore with IO opportunities to upgrade priority of population
activities in such organizations as WHO, FAO, and UNICEF, through U.S. positions and statements at
governing body meetings.
c) Policy Statements: We will seek occasions
for appropriate statements in speeches by the Secretary and other
Department principals; an early opportunity is the International
Development Conference in May in Washington.
8. Policy Development/Key
Countries
We have been promoting the AID RAPID
project, a computerized video-screen presentation of the linkage
between population growth and a given country’s development
objectives, as an effective way of reaching national leadership.
Recently, Ambassador (Ret.) Marshall Green, as a consultant to the
Department, made a RAPID presentation to President Sadat and
elicited from President Zia a request for preparation of one for
Pakistan. Nigeria and Kenya also appear to be at a watershed in
their official attitude toward population growth; RAPID programs are
under preparation. We plan to follow up on and reinforce these
activities.
The CIA, at our request, has in
preparation analyses of the linkage between population factors and
potential political and economic instability in several areas of
particular national security interest to the U.S. We will seek to
use these analyses in foreign policy review exercises as well as in
Congressional contacts in support of U.S. international population
policies.
