Foreign Relations of the United States, 1981–1988, Volume XXIV, North Africa

64. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency¹

NESA M 86–20005

Washington, January 10, 1986

North Africa: The Power Equation

Summary

The two major alliances of North Africa are undergoing internal strains which could lead to a shift in the balance of power in the Maghreb. Morocco’s King Hassan and Libyan leader Qadhafi are increasingly dissatisfied with the implementation of their union; longstanding differences among Algeria, Tunisia, and Mauritania have prevented their loose pact from taking root. We do not anticipate a dissolution of the current groupings in the near term, but friction, if unchecked, could lead the countries to realign their foreign policies. Tentative signs are that change in the alliances would involve rapprochement between Algeria and Libya and possibly expanded ties between Morocco² and Tunisia. We believe Algeria and Libya are the most likely countries to benefit from any major changes, while Morocco and Tunisia would be more isolated and vulnerable. Overall, the balance of power in the Maghreb would not change appreciably, unless in the unlikely event that Algeria and Libya form some sort of an alliance. Such shifts in the region would provide opportunities for Moscow to expand its influence and produce mixed results for Washington. [portion marking not declassified]

[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]

1. Source: Reagan Library, Elaine L. Morton Files, North Africa. Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. Prepared in the Maghreb Branch, Arab-Israeli Division, Office of Near Eastern and South Analysis, based on information received as of January 10.
2. In the left margin an unknown hand drew a line bracketing “realign their foreign policies. Tentative signs are that change in the alliances would involve rapprochement between Algeria and Libya and possibly expanded ties between Morocco and Tunisia.”