382. Intelligence Report Prepared in the Defense Intelligence Agency1
[Omitted here is material unrelated to Western Sahara.]
3. SAHARAN POLISARIO MAY BE LOSING ALGERIAN AND LIBYAN SUPPORT (S/[handling restriction not declassified])
REF:2 [2 lines not declassified]
[1 paragraph (4 lines) not declassified]
POLISARIO leaders are divided and depressed, and there is a general sense of drift among the rank and file. Much of this is the result of the June meeting of the Organization of African Unity (OAU),3 which gave the POLISARIO greater international visibility and created a sense of false optimism but which did not lead to any significant concession from Moroccan King Hassan. On the contrary, it enabled Hassan to play on the national interests of both Algeria and Libya in such a way as to make both these countries deal with the POLISARIO in new and, from the POLISARIO angle, disturbing ways. POLISARIO currently believes that neither Algeria nor Libya can be counted on to continue their previous strong support for Saharan self-determination and sovereignty over the Western Sahara.
In recent talks between POLISARIO leaders and Algerian Government officials, the Algerians used new phrases, such as “supporting the POLISARIO while protecting Algerian interests.” The guerrillas reportedly fear that this is shorthand for withdrawing military support, demanding that the POLISARIO curtail its military activity, and providing financial support under increasingly restrictive conditions. For the first time, POLISARIO must conclude that its interests and Algeria’s no longer coincide.
The Saharan guerrillas’ alarm at this development is accentuated by a similar trend in its dealings with Libya. During a recent trip to Libya for the purpose of requesting military aid, the so-called Minister of Defense of POLISARIO was, in effect, rebuffed by Libya’s leaders. The Libyans he met did not refuse to consider his request, but they clearly specified that no military assistance will be provided in the near [Page 787] future. The Libyan spokesmen who met with the POLISARIO leader spoke favorably of the concept of a referendum in the Western Sahara and urged POLISARIO to remain patient and avoid military action until the meaning of Hassan’s referendum proposal becomes clear.
[3 lines not declassified] French spokesmen also said that neither Algeria or Libya appears ready to respond to any French initiative on the issue at this time.
[1 paragraph (8 lines) not declassified]
We have no doubt that somehow the mood and the situation in North Africa has changed regarding POLISARIO. Only recently, we received information that Hassan and Libyan leader Col Qadhafi have quietly agreed to reestablish formal diplomatic relations—a development that suggests a lessening of Libyan support to POLISARIO.
We are, however, less certain that Algerian support is waning significantly. While we believe that Algeria is looking for a solution to the Saharan quagmire, the country is not likely to drop so quickly a cause it has supported for over 5 years. POLISARIO launched a major operation against Morocco on 11 August. This must be viewed as illustrative of the problems that still plague the Saharan scene. The attack may also be aimed at showing Algeria and Morocco that POLISARIO must be included in any negotiations aimed at a political settlement.
- Source: Washington National Records Center, OSD Files, FRC 330–83–0104, 1981 Official Records (Secret & Below) of the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense, and the Executive Secretary to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense, Box 13, Morocco (Jul–Dec ‘81). Secret; [handling restriction not declassified]. A stamped notation at the top of the memorandum reads: “AUG 14 1981 DEP SEC HAS SEEN.” Rixse initialed the top of the report.↩
- None of the reference reports were found.↩
- See footnote 2, Document 378.↩