204. Research Note Prepared in the Office of Research, Associate Directorate for Programs, International Communication Agency1
Worldwide Optimism vs. Pessimism About the Prospects For 1980
Surveys taken in December 1979 by Gallup Institutes in 22 countries reveal a wide variation in the extent to which prospects for 1980 were viewed as likely to be better or worse than in 1979. The popular mood ranged from a 66 to 16 percent predominance of pessimistic over optimistic expectations among the British, to a 60 to 13 percent predominance of optimism among South Koreans (Table 1).2
The US is among those countries with a marked predominance of pessimism, with a 56 percent majority who viewed prospects for 1980 as worse than 1979 compared to 31 percent who viewed them as better (13 percent said “the same” or gave no opinion). Other countries with a large margin of pessimism were Austria, India, Italy and Canada.
There was a notable concentration of Latin American nations among countries registering predominant optimism, with Uruguay, Mexico and Venezuela trailing only South Korea in the extent of optimistic sentiment. Chile was also predominantly optimistic, though by a lesser margin, and only Brazil fell short of clearly preponderant optimism.
Viewed as a group, the countries surveyed display a remarkably balanced distribution with the number of predominantly pessimistic countries equalling those predominantly optimistic. That the overall balance at the opening of the eighties is at an approximate standoff thus gives the advantage neither to prophets of doom who look for prevailing pessimism or to those of opposite persuasion.
While the study did not explore respondents’ reasons for expressing optimism vs. pessimism about 1980, questions were asked on economic expectations of prosperity and political expectations of a peaceful year. The findings shed considerable light on why Great Britain leads all the countries surveyed in pessimism, an historic high for Great Britain in annual surveys extending back to 1957. The fact is that both [Page 603] adverse economic and political expectations were also at or near historic highs in the current survey.
The results of the supplementary queries also suggest why South Koreans came out so high in optimism since they emerged as second highest among the nations surveyed in anticipations of economic prosperity.
In light of the British and Korean findings, a special analysis was pursued of the relationships between general optimism/pessimism and economic/international political expectations. The results showed that country variations in popular mood are closely associated with variations in economic expectations but have no discernable association with political expectations. More specifically, it was found that in countries where the population is less pessimistic about future economic prospects one finds people to be generally more optimistic.
Trend in Optimism vs. Pessimism
When the popular mood as measured in the latest Gallup surveys is compared to expressions of optimism and pessimism registered a year earlier in some 19 countries, a marked downward trend is found. There have been substantial declines in the margin of optimism over pessimism in 11 countries as against, at most, slight increases in only two. (Table 2)3
This is a major shift downward in the course of a year. So while in the latest measurements neither optimism nor pessimism have won out in the overall balance among the countries represented, if present trends continue one must definitely expect an emerging tilt to the pessimistic side in worldwide expressions of popular mood.
It is interesting to note that there has been virtually no change in expressions of optimism versus pessimism among Americans in expectations for 1979 as compared for those in 1980. In both years there is a clear margin of pessimism with the majority expecting things to get worse. In contrast, among the British there has been a very large shift in viewpoint from what was a slight margin of pessimism in the prior survey to what is currently the largest margin for any of the countries surveyed. Similarly, in India there has been a very large shift toward pessimism in the current survey.
That the popular mood has been trending sharply downward over the past year and that pessimism already prevails by large margins in not a few countries would seem to have serious implications for political communication. Political leaders in spelling out the sacrifices that [Page 604] appear to be required to solve the monumental problems of the present day must take care that this rhetoric achieves the objective of a constructive realism rather than a destructive erosion of popular morale.
- Source: National Archives, RG 306, Office of Research and Media Reaction, Research Memoranda, 1963–1999, Entry P–64, Box 36, M–4–80. No classification marking. Prepared by Crespi.↩
- Attached but not printed is an undated table entitled “Table 1. Optimistic vs. Pessimistic Expectations for 1980.”↩
- Attached but not printed is an undated table entitled “Table 2. Trend in Optimism-Pessimism About Prospects for 1979 and 1980.”↩