198. Memorandum From the President’s Assistant for National Security Affairs (Brzezinski) to President Carter1
SUBJECT
- Weekly Report #153
[Omitted here is material unrelated to India.]
3. Alert
Trouble Ahead with India?
You have already noticed the charges that Mrs. Gandhi has made about U.S. involvement in Indian affairs; there were reported public [Page 505] statements at least as bad (although these have been denied).2 She has also gone to great pains to explain, if not justify, Soviet actions in Afghanistan as responses to threats from the U.S. and China.3 Mrs. Gandhi has long been critical of the U.S., but the current rash seems to reflect her depression, even paranoia, following the death of Sanjay. This frame of mind does not bode well for Indo-U.S. relations.
Her poor frame of mind is also affecting the work of the Indian government, which is virtually immobile on a large number of fronts. India’s failure to come to terms with the problem posed by the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan is an example.
On top of these problems, we face a number of other issues that are troublesome. The Indian recognition of Heng Samrin was, to say the least, ill-advised and inconsiderate of our interests. We have cautioned them not to press their case too hard at the UN, but they may well ignore us. Our trade problems and Tarapur are adding fuel to the fire. We may find ourselves faced with a major deterioration in Indo-U.S. relations next year, especially if Tarapur turns sour.
Since Mrs. Gandhi has shown resilience in the past, she may rebound from her present state—probably in ways that would be better rather than worse for us. Your last letter to her4 provides her with an important potential opening to start working out her long-standing personal problems with the U.S.
There is probably nothing much more we can or should do at this time. The Indians will listen better after you have received a new popular mandate; we need to let some time pass to see how Tarapur plays out; and we will be talking frankly to the Indians in the bilateral political meetings we have scheduled for late October. Initiatives taken now run the risk of being ignored, misunderstood, or lost in the background noise of Tarapur. A PRC might be in order, however, once we get well into November.
[Omitted here is material unrelated to India.]
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Brzezinski Material, Brzezinski Office File, Subject Chron File, Box 127, Weekly National Security Report: 8–12/80. Secret. Carter initialed at the top of the memorandum.↩
- According to telegram 19005 from New Delhi, September 10, Gandhi, when asked by a university student delegation about the possibility of foreign involvement in recurring communal violence, was quoted as saying the CIA was “playing a major role in creating communal trouble” in India. When asked to comment, the MEA press attaché told Blood, “I cannot imagine the Prime Minister saying this.” Blood then reminded the MEA official “that the timing of this report was extremely unfortunate in view of the scheduled Tarapur vote” in Congress. (National Archives, RG 59, Central Foreign Policy File, D800431–0697)↩
- See Document 176.↩
- See Document 195.↩