338. Memorandum From the Chairman of the NSC Ad Hoc Group on Population Policy (Pickering) to the Members of the NSC Ad Hoc Group on Population Policy1
SUBJECT
- Population Factors and U.S. National Security
On April 21, the NSC Ad Hoc Group met to discuss the relationship of demographic trends to U.S. national security interests. There was general agreement that several key countries and areas where the United States has important national security concerns are experiencing significant population pressures. It was also agreed that there is a lack of analysis relating to the effects of population growth on social unrest and political instability. Such analysis could be useful to the Executive Branch in foreign policy and development strategy formulation regarding specific countries, and to the Congress in its consideration of AID population funding.
Ambassador Marshall Green, consultant to the State Department, initiated the discussion. He admitted the difficulty in analyzing how excessive population growth affects national security, but emphasized that it is necessary to show how population interacts with other potentially destabilizing factors in a society. He noted that the “arc of crisis” tends to coincide with the arc of countries where there has been little success in dealing with the population problem. He suggested that the political observers in our overseas missions should be brought fully into a new evaluation of the population/national security linkage in key countries.
Several members observed that there is decreased donor interest, while at the same time there is increased interest on the part of underdeveloped countries in dealing with their population problems. There is a need for “hard” evidence about the results of population growth, which would be of use in convincing Congress of the importance of population in national security terms.
The members concluded that a core group of analysts should produce a pilot study, focusing on a specific country, in order to gain a better idea of the dimensions and possibilities for research in this new [Page 1135] area. Such a core group would be interdisciplinary in nature, involving analysts from CIA’s Office of Geographic and Cartographic Research (OGCR) and State/INR, and drawing, as appropriate, on the Census Bureau, AID, Defense, and possibly other agencies. Egypt, Mexico, and Kenya were mentioned as possible initial countries for study.
As a next step, I am attaching a preliminary outline for such a study,2 and would much appreciate your comments and suggestions, which can be addressed to Richard E. Benedick, Coordinator of Population Affairs, OES/CP, Room 7825.
I am also attaching for your information, as requested at the meeting, a study by OGCR on Turkey,3 which appears to contain some elements of what we are aiming at. I might also cite a book which has come to my attention, Population Dynamics and International Violence, (MIT, Lexington Books, 1974), by Nazli Choucri, for its discussion of the issue.
We look forward to hearing from you in the near future on the proposed outline, on possible initial countries for study, and on whether and how your agency might be able to participate in the analysis.
- Source: Carter Library, National Security Affairs, Staff Material, Global Issues—Oplinger/Bloomfield Subject File, Box 35, Environment: Population 5–6/80. Confidential. Addressed to the 17 members of the Ad Hoc Group. Drafted by Sergeant on May 21; cleared by Benedick. Copies were sent to Giffler, Eckholm, and U.S. Census Bureau (BUCEN).↩
- The undated memorandum, “Population Factors and U.S. National Security,” is attached but not printed.↩
- Not attached.↩