Foreign Relations of the United States, 1977–1980, Volume II, Human Rights and Humanitarian Affairs

337. Briefing Memorandum From the Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environmental and Scientific Affairs (Pickering) to Secretary of State Muskie ¹

Washington, May 19, 1980

SUBJECT

• Release of Global 2000 Study

The Global 2000 Study, which the Council on Environmental Quality and State jointly carried out at the request of President Carter, is now being printed. (A description of the study and principal findings is attached.) We anticipate that the study will be ready for release in July. Still unknown, however, is the degree of publicity the White House might wish to accord it—and also the timing of the public release—since the nature and severity of the population, resources and environmental problems the study identifies may be viewed as more “bad news” at the wrong time.

I will be participating with Gus Speth (CEQ) Tuesday (May 20) in a briefing for key White House advisers, expected to include Zbig Brzezinski, Stu Eizenstat, Frank Press, John White, Hedley Donovan, and Anne Wexler. We plan to describe the conclusions of the study, and to identify various options with respect to timing, level and type of public release. This is an extremely important study, and there is widespread public knowledge of its existence and great interest in it. I believe that it can be used in a positive manner by the Administration to demonstrate its leadership in anticipating future global challenges and also in mounting important responses to the problems. On this basis Speth and I will recommend to the White House that the President, himself, participate in a well-publicized release of the study; and also that a program of extensive briefings be conducted for the Congress, U.S. non-governmental organizations, and foreign embassy officials.

Given your past involvement in critical issues addressed by the study, and the considerable foreign policy implications involved, I hope you will be able to become involved in the release of the study. The Global 2000 Study has already been discussed during preparations for the forthcoming Venice Summit, and the draft Summit Communique calls for a similar report to the Summit of 1981.

We plan to arrange an (early June) internal State Department briefing on Global 2000, with emphasis on its international implications and follow-up. We will work closely with your staff to ensure that you are apprised of the status of such issues as the White House release strategy, and are in a position to decide on your own role.

Attachment

Summary Prepared in the Department of State ²

Washington, May 1980

THE GLOBAL 2000 STUDY

Background

The Global 2000 Study responds to a directive by President Carter in his 1977 Environmental Message.³ It is an attempt to project worldwide trends and conditions with respect to natural resource availability, population and environmental quality to the end of this century. It is based on extensive data collection and the application of the Government’s current modeling capability. The Study, according to the President, is also to serve as the foundation of the Government’s future long-term planning.

The Global 2000 Study is different from all previous U.S. studies of population, resources and environmental trends in that this task examines these closely related topics as a whole, rather than as separate and independent topics. In addition to describing trends and highlighting potential future global problems, the Study assesses the Government’s capabilities for carrying out projections and analyses of this type.

Findings

The Study concludes that: if present trends continue, the world in 2000 will be more crowded, more polluted, less stable ecologically and more vulnerable to disruptions than the world we live in now. Serious stresses involving population, resources and environment are clearly visible ahead. The Study acknowledges the existence of greatly heightened worldwide awareness of potential problems in these areas, and also the wide spectrum of new policies and programs which are being implemented to cope with them. Nonetheless, barring revolutionary advances in technology, life for most people on earth will be more precarious in 2000 than it is now—unless the nations of the world act decisively to alter current trends. Some of the individual findings of the Study follow:

World population will increase some 50 percent by 2000, reaching 6.3 billion people. Ninety (90) percent of the growth will be in the LDCs, which will mean that 75 percent of the people of the world will live in the poorer nations.

Gross National Product is projected to increase in proportion to population increases on a world average. Economic growth in LDCs will increase somewhat, while it will slow in the industrialized nations relative to past decades.

World food production will increase 90 percent between 1970 to 2000. This assumes a doubling of food prices, continued increase in fish production, and ability to expand irrigation and use of fertilizers significantly (since amount of cultivated land will expand only 4 percent). However, world-marine fish catches are not projected to increase significantly beyond current levels. Food consumption (nutrition levels) will be increasingly skewed between “haves” and “have nots”.

Energy will be an increasingly difficult problem, and it is unclear how demand will be met. Problems of uneven geographical distribution, and economic and environmental constraints, will influence use and acceptability of coal, oil, gas, oil shale, and nuclear sources. The real price of energy will double by 2000; and the LDCs will increase energy use only slightly.

Non-fuel minerals will be generally sufficient to meet projected demands through 2000. However, production costs will rise rapidly.

Water will become increasingly in short supply on local and regional levels, as population and economic growth combine to affect both quantity and quality (through pollution).

Forests will continue to disappear rapidly, principally in the tropics, where 40 percent of remaining cover will be lost by 2000. Associated problems of erosion, siltation, erratic water supplies, loss of wood and wildlife and (possibly) regional and global climate change will intensify.

Agricultural soils will continue to degrade due to erosion, loss of organic matter, desertification, salination and waterlogging. Annually, an area of cropland and rangeland the size of Maine is becoming wasteland.

Upper atmosphere pollution, principally by carbon dioxide and fluorocarbons, is expected to increase at rates which (by 2000) may lock us into potentially serious problems of climate change and ozone depletion for the next century.

U.S. long-range projection capabilities need significant improvement if we and other governments are to have an adequate basis for factoring long-term trends into policy planning. There are gaps and inconsistencies in the data and methodologies used by the Federal agencies, along with important differences in assumptions.

Organizational Structure

Fifteen Federal agencies participated in the Study:

Council on Environmental Quality

State Department

Agency for International Development

Bureau of the Census

Central Intelligence Agency

Defense Civil Preparedness Agency

Department of Agriculture

Department of Energy

Department of the Interior

Energy Research and Development Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

National Science Foundation

Office of Science and Technology Policy

In addition, numerous officials and technical experts from a broad range of nongovernmental institutions participated in the Study design, development and review.

Mr. Gus Speth, Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality, and Ambassador Thomas Pickering, Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and International Environment and Scientific Affairs, co-chair the Executive Group overseeing the Study.

The Study Director, Dr. Gerald O. Barney, and a small central staff report to the co-chairpersons of the Executive Group, are housed at the Council on Environmental Quality. Ms. Story Shem represents the State Department as Executive Assistant on the Study.

1. Source: National Archives, RG 59, Under Secretaries of State for International Security Affairs—Files of Lucy W. Benson and Matthew Nimetz: Chronological Files, Human Rights Country Files, Security Assistance Country and Subject Files, 1977–1980, Lot 81D321, Box 6, Matthew Nimetz May 1980 Chron. Unclassified. Sent through Nimetz. Drafted by Long on May 16. There is no indication that Muskie saw the memorandum.
2. No classification marking.
3. The President’s directive: “Environmental problems do not stop at national boundaries. In the past decade we and other nations have come to recognize the urgency of international efforts to protect our common environment. As part of this process, I am directing the Council on Environmental Quality and the Department of State, working in cooperation with the Environmental Protection Agency, the National Science Foundation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and other appropriate agencies, to make a one-year study of the probable changes in the world’s population, natural resources, and environment through the end of the century. This studtaby will serve as the foundation of our longer-term planning. . .” (Emphasis added). [Footnote in the original. See footnote 4, Document 284.]