563. Intelligence Memorandum 2438/721 2
Panama: 1973—The Year of the Treaty?3
[Page 2]The current round of canal negotiations which began in June 1971 has been stalled for the past eight months, in part because General Torrijos was unwilling to commit himself on substantive issues or allow the talks to move from an exploratory to a bargaining phase. Having solidified his position and legitimized his rule, Torrijos can now begin to focus on the canal issue. The gulf between the Panamanian and US positions is substantial, but Panama apparently believes that the US can be pressured into offering additional concessions. Negotiations will probably resume in Panama in the near future.
Torrijos has approached the negotiations with ambivalence and apprehension. Panama’s position as he perceives it is one of moral superiority, but material and tactical inferiority. He believes that international opinion supports Panamanian aspirations for control of the Canal Zone and that even the US public, if it could only be informed, would regard the current situation as anachronistic. On the other hand, aside from his ability to embarrass Washington, Torrijos realizes that Panama has relatively little bargaining leverage. Most of the give is on the US side, most of the get is on the Panamanian side.
Because Torrijos does not approach the negotiations as an equal with equivalent points to concede, he seems deeply suspicious of the normal negotiating process. He apparently sees the canal issue more as a political rather than a diplomatic problem. As such, it would require a broad agreement on principles blocked out at the top with only the details left for the diplomatic technicians to handle.
Despite suggestions from the US and his own foreign policy advisers that he develop a completed position on all issues, Torrijos thus far has [Page 3] retained maximum flexibility and has only limned some of the basic ingredients of the new treaty. There are, of course, certain points that Torrijos regards as essential to any agreement: a definite termination date for a new treaty after which the canal would be turned over to Panama; full Panamanian jurisdiction over the Canal Zone, including an immediate end to trials of Panamanians in US courts. On a number of other issues, such as compensation, a status of forces agreement, and land use, Torrijos has not yet made up his mind, but these issues appear to be negotiable.
A major impediment to an agreement is the inability of Torrijos’ aides to persuade him that a US offer is a good one or that it is firm and final. Afraid of being outmaneuvered, he is probably unwilling to trust any outline of the US position that does not come directly from the highest levels of government. Also, he has tended to believe that threats and pressure might bring greater concessions. Over the past few months Panama has attempted to lay the groundwork for the possible application of such pressure. Panamanian ambassadors around the world have publicized Panama’s side on the canal issue, Panamanian representatives have sought support at various international conferences, and a major effort has been made to have the United Nations Security Council meet in Panama City in March.
[Page 4][Omitted here is the section of the paper titled “Preparations for Negotiation.”]
- Source: Central Intelligence Agency, Office of Current Intelligence, Job 79–T00832A, Panama, 1973—The Year of the Treaty?. Secret; No Foreign Dissem.↩
- In this 2 page intelligence memorandum titled, “Panama 1973: The Year of the Treaty?” the Central Intelligence Agency concluded that the current round of Canal treaty talks had stalled mainly because President Torrijos had been unwilling to move from exploratory negotiations to bargaining on the issues to be resolved.↩
- Note: This memorandum was prepared by the Office of Current Intelligence and coordinated within CIA.↩