177. Memorandum for President Johnson1
SUBJECT
- Congo
Both the political and military situations in the Congo are very confused. The government is weak, political unrest is growing, the army is unreliable, and insurgency is spreading.
1. Politically a “transition government” will take over by June 30, looking to a new constitution and elections. Adoula is at the low point of his power and prestige, and there is a lot of intrigue and maneuver. Adoula seems completely indecisive and incapable of action. However, the best bet for the new government is still Adoula with a broader base to the right and, perhaps, to the moderate left (which the Belgians are demanding). We probably have enough influence to force a change of government but not to control the outcome—and it’s doubtful change [Page 253] would solve much. We continue, therefore, to play a waiting game, maintaining support for Adoula for want of a better alternative.
2. Militarily the Congo army (ANC) has been almost a complete failure in the Kivu rebellion; well armed troops are being routed by Pygmies carrying spears and machetes. The rebellion is largely tribal with no real evidence of foreign intervention or supply. However, rebels now have some arms and equipment captured from the ANC. After taking several towns and routing the ANC the rebels have been quiet the past week. This weekend the ANC began a counter offensive, have gone a few miles south and reoccuppied a town formally [formerly?] rebel-held, but now seem to be stalled even though there is no resistance. If the rebels counterattack the ANC will probably run again and there is no significant evidence of ANC leadership or fighting ability. If the rebels take Bukavu, which could well happen, there may well be a serious political crisis in Leopoldville and new fighting in other places, particularly Stanleyville.
- Source: Johnson Library, National Security File, Country File, Congo, Vol. I, 11/63–6/64. Secret. The memorandum, on NSC stationery, is not signed. A June 16 memorandum from McGeorge Bundy transmitting two memoranda on the Congo to the President indicates that the “short one” was prepared at his direction by William H. Brubeck of the NSC Staff. (Ibid., Memos to the President, McGeorge Bundy, Vol. 5)↩