126. Memorandum From the Director of Intelligence and Research (Cumming) to the Counselor (Reinhardt)0
The best available evidence now indicates that the Baghdad branch of the Hashemite family has been almost completely wiped out. Furthermore, most of the important Iraqi supporters of the former regime in Baghdad including leading politicians, military figures and some large landowners and industrialists are dead, in jail, or under strict house arrest. There is thus almost nothing left of the Royal regime in Iraq around which opponents of the new Republic could rally. Reports of a loyalist radio being heard, and of a resistance movement centering around Amir Zeid (the 65-year old half brother of King Faisal I of Iraq) who is now in Turkey are unconfirmed.
Under these circumstances, in our opinion any move by force from the outside into Iraq would meet with very little Iraqi support and its success would be highly unlikely. Furthermore, since the signing of the Mutual Defense Agreement yesterday, Nasser and the Syrians would promptly come to the aid of the Republic of Iraq.
Lastly, Soviet or Bloc reaction which at present is confined to protests and propaganda would undoubtedly take more concrete form depending upon the type of the invasion. Although avoiding the serious risk of a general war, the results of this would be of the utmost seriousness in the Near East, and might well spread elsewhere.
- Source: Department of State, Central Files, 787.00/7–2058. Secret. Initialed by Reinhardt.↩