751G.00/11–953: Telegram
The Consul at Hanoi (Sturm) to the Department of State
278. Repeated information Saigon 207, Paris 128. In briefing given yesterday to General O’Daniel, General Cogny said that in recently completed operation Mouette 1,141 Viet-Minh dead were counted on battlefield. On basis intelligence and questioning of prisoners, Cogny estimates that additional casualties inflicted by air bombing and artillery plus prisoners taken bring grand total division 320 losses in operation to about 4,500 or more than one-third its effectives.
At briefing given Vice President Nixon November 4, Field Commander of operation estimated Viet-Minh division’s losses more conservatively at “not less than 20 percent.”
Cogny’s Chief of Staff said yesterday in private conversation that while he believed division 320 had for the time being ceased to be an effective military force, there is no way of determining how long it will remain so. If trained reserves are available, as they may be, division might be restored to combat readiness in matter of few weeks.
Meanwhile, Cogny said he felt threat to south delta had been relieved for the present by damage inflicted on division 320 and by reason of fact division 304 has fallen back on Thanh-Hoa. Cogny suggested he would next be concerned with elite divisions 308 and 312 now sitting to northwest of delta and that his objective was to attack before they did.
Comment: While Mouette was useful, it was badly overplayed by press and in certain military circles. Thoughtful observers here see it one of a series of time-gaining manoeuvres designed to delay what is generally coming to be accepted as an inevitable major Viet-Minh effort against the delta and to blunt the force of that assault when it is launched.