790.00/12–1552: Telegram
The Ambassador in the United Kingdom (Gifford) to the Department of State
secret
London, December 15, 1952—6
p.m.
3336. Rptd info Paris 905. Embtel 3312, Dec 13.1 Following is abbreviated text Bukit Serene conference2 conclusions and recommendations IC:
- 1.
- Conference reviewed military situation in light present fighting and plan gradually replace Fr with Vietnam forces over two-year period.
- 2.
- Military situation may develop badly. Fr have lost initiative northern areas outside delta. Present tactical conception is bring enemy to battle against prepared defenses, but Fr have inadequate reserves achieve success.
- 3.
- If Nasan lost political and military consequences will be serious. Fr forces there and in Lai Chau wld experience great difficulty in regaining base. Thai country wld be lost and Laos open to invasion. If Nasan held it likely only at great cost, and important element Fr forces may remain tied up in area where they have little freedom of maneuver. Some evidence Viet Minh intention is by-pass delta and aim for Laos and Cambodia. Thai PriMin exhibiting nervousness.
- 4.
- Fr undoubtedly require reinforcements restore situation. Not easy assess what strength such reinforcements shld be, but perhaps one division. Increase in air effort shld also be valuable.
- 5.
- In long term, understanding is Fr intend begin withdrawal forces to Europe beginning early 1953 and ending late 1954 to extent of having dissolved IC command and withdrawn all but garrison forces for Fr Union defense. We must face prospect that in two years Vietnamese will have, broadly speaking, face Viet Minh by themselves. Little reason to suppose they can do this effectively unless meanwhile Viet Minh suffer military disaster permanently weakening their forces.
- 6.
- Evident both in short and long term urgent need for reinforcement under present circumstances, such reinforcement can only be French. Conference fully conscious of great difficulties involved, particularly Fr preoccupation with Europe. Bukit Serene concerned with security of SEA and holding IC against Commies. It therefore, of highest importance reinforce troops IC and everything be done remove obstacle in way such course.
Gifford