751G.00/9–2652: Telegram
The Ambassador at Saigon (Heath) to the Department of State
673. Rptd info Hanoi unn. Re Deptel 569, September 15, rptd Hanoi.1 Emb views Hanoi tel 163, Sept 20 [19] to Dept as excellent summary sitn North Viet and concurs in estimate contained last para that tel. Fol comments give our view sitn in South and Central Vietnam.
Reports … in past few months depict marked deterioration econ conditions VM zones and weariness both populace and cadres with revolutionary struggle. Data … indicate VM South Viet Security Service preoccupied with increasing desertions from cadres and hiding of arms in areas threatened by Fr operations in order avoid fighting; commander VM west zone complains he unable organize resistance to Fr union mil operations because lack of fighting spirit among reg troops and lackadaisical attitude militia.
Info in same vein provided by .… Leafing thru file recent reports, … quoted numerous passages indicating low morale due econ hardships (shortage food, medicine and clothing especially) fear aerial bombardment, nostalgia for relatives, friends and native towns and villages and dissatisfaction with heavy taxes and Commie regimentation. Destruction by aerial bombardment of sluices and other irrigation works drying up rice fields producing great hardships.… also said security conditions in cities and towns had improved notably attributing this to difficulty VM encounter in getting persons to perform [Page 260] terrorist acts and to fact populace are less fearful of VM.… said that whereas formerly on VM holidays shopkeepers were wary of opening estabs now there is practically no hesitation. Diminution of fear of and sympathy for VM also reported to Emb offs by Viets.
Testimony re difficulties prevailing in VM zones comes from VM radio itself, most recent instance being Ho Chi Minh message to South Viet Sept 23 on occasion seventh anniversary commencement “resistance” in South Viet. Ho message while promising victory mentions resistance struggle will be long drawn out and, alluding to hardships faced, asserts greater the difficulty greater must be effort, quoting proverb to effect strength and will of man tested by adversity.
As large part info re conditions VM zones derived from defectors who may be expected paint dark picture to please Fr and Viet Govt offs who question them and to justify their departure, these reports must be treated with some reserve. Nevertheless, severe hardships encountered by populations zones of VM and increasing number of defectors seem sufficiently well substantiated to warrant their acceptance as estab facts.
To what extent these difficulties have affected VM organ and mil units is difficult to ascertain. Janot, Letourneau‘s Directeur de Cabinet when queried recently on this point by Emb off shrugged his shoulders and stated, altho reports of VM distress numerous at present he not inclined to draw too sanguine conclusions therefrom. Col Harris,2 who recently completed two years tour strongly held opinion that hardships have not seriously affected fighting capabilities VM troops. There is no instance of defection of top-flight VM; defectors to date have been largely elderly people, women and very young children who constitute mouths to feed which VM can best do without.
On balance Embassy believes that altho VM are undergoing very difficult times we should not permit ourselves to draw too optimistic conclusions therefrom as experience has shown that “belt tightening process” can be carried on almost indefinitely and that small number of zealots can exert tremendous control. Present VM difficulties, however, afford psychological warfare opportunity to boost morale anti-Commie forces and foster increasing disillusionment Viets with Commies.
It remains to be pointed out that in South and Central Vietnam VM civil and mil formations are much less developed than in north. On basis of available info it does not appear that arms of Chi origin have yet come into South Viet or that Chi advisors have played significant role in this region.
- For text, see footnote 2, p. 252.↩
- Col. Lee V. Harris, former senior Military Attaché at Saigon.↩