794A.00/5–1750: Telegram

The Charge in China (Strong) to the Secretary of State

top secret
priority

759. Unexpected evacuation of Chusans1 by Nationalist Government creates situation almost identical to alternative possibility stated mytel 658, April 27 (by-passing of Chusans by Communists).

Communist resources can now be concentrated against Taiwan solely (whether Chinmen is evacuated or not). How soon Communists can undertake offensive action against Taiwan is matter of sheer guesswork and is dependent on internal developments here as well as on Communist military strength.

In opinion of attachés and myself fate of Taiwan sealed, Communist attack can occur between June 15 and end July. Although probably mid-June too early a date we are not in position prove it, nor is it worth-while arguing whether will occur in one month, two months or three months.

Conference this morning with ECA and attachés resulted agreement internal developments very difficult know and evaluate thoroughly and are equally or more dangerous than external attack. As stated reftel, we feel reduction of American staffs to be matter of greater urgency than would have been case had effort been made defend Chusans. We cannot determine how soon Communist air activity over Taiwan will begin, but it is possible from now on.

My revised recommendations are as follows:

1.
Immediate issue formal warning to all Americans leave Taiwan soonest (text to be provided by Department) and passports for entry into Taiwan to be withheld (including Johnston International personnel who due soon to begin well-digging under contract with Taiwan Sugar Company.
2.
Immediate evacuation all female employees and remaining dependents in ECA.
3.
Commence elimination USIS and ECAJCRR, and reduction Consulate General staff and attaches. Feel USIS should be terminated completely regardless, but as matter policy, Department may wish continue economic aid as benefit to people on Taiwan. In that event, instead of elimination Department may wish keep very small number [Page 341] ECA staff here as aid supervisors. Moyer2 recommends sixty percent reduction, or from twenty Americans to eight. I consider this number as too high and would prefer only three or four, if any are to remain. We agree this matter of policy requiring Washington decision.
J. G. White engineers should be cut from ten Americans to maximum of three.
Cut Consulate General staff to myself, Swayne, Albaugh, Bowling, Courton and McCarthy (sole use of OTP will require more code clerks).
Remove cryptographic machines.
Other agencies nominate personnel to remain after reduction. Should be held to minimum consistent with gaining intelligence on Soviets and Chinese Communists, and maintaining historical record military events here. Target date for completion elimination and reduction June 15.
4.
Cease issuance exit visas after June 15. Department will note new quota year commences July 1. Taipei as only office able issue preference visas under Chinese racial quota may be swamped with visa applicants after that date. If Department unable concur cessation visa functions, additional officer required here (Pletcher).
. . . . . . .
5.
Clamp down on entries by Chinese into Japan.
6.
Tokyo provide by radio summaries of Communist broadcasts containing significant comment on Taiwan.
7.
If Pletcher not to remain here, authorize Swayne act as both disbursing and certifying officer. If Pletcher to remain here, authorize Swayne temporary duty Hong Kong, after evacuation, en route Singapore enable him complete accounts in company with Pletcher (who assigned Hong Kong).

Expect take following action soon:

1.
Base both attaché planes Hong Kong in order minimize danger from sabotage as well as Communist air attacks.
2.
Inaugurate frequent shuttle flights Hong Kong–Taipei in order establish regularity of clearance with Chinese authorities. Will use these flights to remove to Hong Kong US Government property of utility and value. Request Hong Kong advise whether can still use household and office furniture and equipment. Request Department advise both Taipei and Hong Kong whether other offices in area need such items.
3.
Meet with MLG representatives at Hong Kong to obtain final understanding on evacuation.

Upon receipt of reply from Department will calculate funds needed terminate by June 15 alien employees listed mytel 388, May 11.3

We shall have all documentation necessary for transfer to British Consul prepared prior June 15, and following receipt of reply shall establish internal and external evacuation units.

Appreciate early action by Department enable me set wheels in [Page 342] motion. In view of the number of imponderables in Taiwan situation feel necessary take initial action sooner rather than later. Once cut down to manageable size, we can quickly react to any contingency.

Foregoing involves changes in a few details of recommendations made in reftel, but for greater part conforms therewith.

Am informed Taipei flooded with rumors that ITS personnel being evacuated at once by destroyer. UP correspondent Robert Miller learned of meeting this morning. In reponse to questions I confirmed meeting and review of newly-created situation sent Department but refused further comment except that do not consider crisis exists now and any future course of action must be laid down in Washington.

View delicacy of matter, suggest Department keep Taipei informed advance of any and all public pronouncements. Initial statement referring evacuation notice can be coupled with specific indication of level at which US activities here to continue. Although danger from internal developments is probably greater than from external attack, Department may deem it wiser omit reference in text of notice to American citizens and Department’s initial public release.

Am aware Department’s desire take no step which would lower Nationalist morale, but feel that balanced statement at this time would in fact not cause morale fall lower than it actually is despite inevitable words which will be said here in response.

Sent Department 759, repeated Hong Kong 229.

Strong
  1. The Government of the Republic of China Ordered evacuation of the Chusan Islands on May 10 before a threatened Communist invasion was launched. The evacuation was completed by May 16 and announced by the Nationalist Government on the following day.
  2. Raymond T. Moyer, Chief of the ECA Mission on Taiwan.
  3. Not printed.