661.00/4–2550: Telegram
The Ambassador in the Soviet Union (Kirk) to the Secretary of State
1214. Please inform Departments Defense, Army, Navy and Air Force. With despatch No. 514 of April 251 going forward today Embassy encloses a report containing a basic estimate of Soviet intentions similar to that contained in despatch 202 of April 6, 1949.2 As heretofore the report has been prepared by the Embassy’s Joint Intelligence Committee which includes representatives of the Service Attachés and consideration is given therein to all the basic factors involved, political, military, economic, et cetera.
[Page 293]The report’s conclusions may be briefly summarized as follows: The Kremlin is waging total war against the free world, a ruthless and unrelenting struggle within which “cold war” and “shooting war” are merely tactical phases. They are currently endeavoring to make the most of the tidal wave of social change generated by World War Two with the minimum objective of capturing half the world before the wave subsides and perhaps with the hope that they may be able to achieve sufficient gains to prepare the free world for a final push without the latter having been able to attain post-war stabilization. They have passed through the first phase of exploiting the World War tidal wave which consisted of effecting revolutionary conquests under cover of war-engendered good will, meanwhile rehabilitating Soviet heavy industry and military machine and are now in the second phase, an openly revolutionary offensive in which, relying upon a wave of rebellion against “imperialism” in dependent areas and a western economic depression, they hope to encompass certain given regions before the free world can recover, perhaps by 1953. To accomplish these objectives Moscow is steering a course as close as possible to full-scale war short of actually precipitating it. The danger that war may occur through Soviet miscalculation will in circumstances doubtless grow considerably but the probability that the Kremlin is still far from considering itself ready for global warfare is supported by most of the available evidence and while incidents and limited hostilities may be expected it seems probable that Moscow will endeavor to avoid a showdown until it attains overwhelming superiority of force.
Sent Department 1214, Department pass London 161, Paris 168, Frankfort 86.
- Extracts from the report transmitted in despatch 514 from Moscow, April 25, are scheduled for publication in volume iv.↩
- For extract of report dated April 5, see Foreign Relations, 1949, vol. v, p. 604.↩