761.93/1–2049: Telegram
The Chargé in the Soviet Union (Kohler) to the Secretary of State
[Received January 20—4:52 p. m.]
151. In our view rapid sweep events China outpaced Soviet policy and compelled Kremlin quickly review and decide, probably in consultation CCP, their immediate policy toward Chinese conflict.
While Soviet mediation intimations made during past year, particularly by Ambassador Roschin, Nanking, may have been pure smoke screen, consider more probable Kremlin misjudged military capacities CCP and weaknesses Kmt Government and believed at the time political settlement would be advantageous. However, capture Mukden and brilliant successes CCP armies, coupled with publicly stated intransigent attitude Mao toward Kmt Government, must have given Kremlin pause for thought.
Embassy believes plausible that, either on initiative of Soviets who found it necessary take decision on expected mediation request by Chinese Central Government or on initiative Mao himself, who feared Soviets might favorably consider such proposal, a meeting between Soviet and CCP leaders may have taken place in Moscow to determine and coordinate policies.
Time table recent events lends credence this hypothesis:
January 2, after weeks rumors and premature news reports, Tass denied USSR had been approached or was considering mediating Sino conflict.
January 8 Chinese Government delivered notes Nanking.
January 9 to approximately 15, some distinguished foreign notable was undoubtedly present Moscow (Embtels 85, January 12 and 105, January 1516).
January 15 Mao announced peace terms (not published Moscow until January 19).
January 17 negative Soviet reply handed Chinese Ambassador.
Meanwhile French Ambassador asked see Vyshinsky on matter January 11, was stalled to January 18, then informed announced decision reached only “late last night”—obviously deliberately false statement, since reply handed Chinese Ambassador previous afternoon.
From above Embassy believes Mao or emissary may possibly have been Moscow and Soviet–CCP agreement reached here. While hypothesis speculative, Department may have other information to deny or support.
Sent Department 151, repeated Nanking 11.
- Neither printed. The former reported: “Pure speculation based process elimination and international situation suggests possibility Polish Government or Chinese Communist delegation.” (861.00/1–1249)↩