893.00B/8–3149: Telegram
The Consul General at Peiping (Clubb) to the Secretary of State
[Received September 2—7:45 p. m.]
1456. Re Contel 1412, August 25 [24],18 Chin Ting-chih, closely connected Chou Ching-wen, informed me variously August 29 and today Communists are encountering difficulties in bringing Democratic persons definitely into camp, that Chang Tung-sun, Lo Lung-chi and Chou Ching-wen particularly might lead Democrats in move non-participation new PCC. One of primary points difference between Communists and Democrats is question foreign relations. Democrats oppose Communist policies following exclusively pro-USSR line, contending this would be justified only in war, that otherwise China should maintain at least as close economic and political relations with USA and Britain as does USSR. Chin said today possibility break had increased, that it seemed “good possibility”. Chin noted persons belonging no organizations like Yenching and Tsinghua could not but subscribe to general condemnation “American imperialism” but that few Democrats are coming forward individually take same stand (but see Contel 1399, August 2018 and others).
Per Chin, also Li Chi-shen is now so closely “protected” by Communists that would-be visitors are turned away.
Chin says Democrats were aware USSR was consolidating its position Manchuria but USSR in thus acting was following way of Japan which had “clasped bomb to bosom”, and would eventually get into [Page 514] trouble with USA. I noted that when Japan occupied Manchuria, China had objected but now they (1) went through motions approving Soviet actions Manchuria and (2) daily asserted USA was enemy.
Chin said Democrats felt balance military power Europe had shifted recently in favor USSR (Contels 1276, August 1, and 1316, August 820), that however by March USA might be expected take strong stand against USSR. He opined that if USSR in such case retreated, CCP would be badly shaken. He still showed belief war might come end this or beginning next year. One might deduce from his statements Democrats less sure now.
Chin opined pause in Communist advance toward Canton results from Communist deliberations now in progress re what action to be taken against (1) Hong Kong, (2) Formosa. He pointed out re Hong Kong that Communists were filled with confidence as result their “victory over imperialism” Shanghai and opined Hong Kong be attacked after capture Canton. He voluntarily conceded this would create serious situation. He seemed feel USA would somehow assist Nationalists hold Formosa.
Chin reiterated previous forecast Communists would soon be asking for American food. See Contel 1452 this date.21
Believe skepticism is indicated re Chin’s report of possible Democratic bolt. Granted Democratic dissatisfactions, they have no place to go. Their craven adherence to Communist propaganda line would indicate little inclination to follow another road, even if offered, if danger were to be faced en route. Until facts prove contrary, assume Chin’s report this regard reflects Democrats’ desire appear in somewhat better light reflected in their public utterances, and maintain some connections.
Unconfirmed reports indicate Chou En-lai now bears primary administrative responsibility Communist set-up, that is, has taken over much load from Mao Tse-tung. New report Mao seriously ill but note he went to station [to] meet Mme. Sun Yat-sen August 28.
Sent Department; repeated Nanking 1053, Shanghai 943.