745.45F/7–1948: Telegram
The Chargé in India (Donovan) to the Secretary of State
583. Following Embassy’s evaluation threatening factors in Indo-Pakistan relations mentioned Deptel 430, July 14.
- 1.
- Presence regular GOP troops in Kashmir, widely publicized by GOI in recent weeks, has strengthened GOI determination demand withdrawal raiders and GOP troops before accepting cease-fire order.
- 2.
- There has been intensification Indian military action Kashmir during past few months with obvious objective pushing western front approximately to Pakistan Kashmir border. GOI cannot hope, however, clear all Kashmir of hostilities in near future and Embassy doubts that campaign was primarily undertaken to strengthen GOI position for UNCIP deliberations.
- 3.
- According information from UK High Commissioner, GOI has received “assurances from Pakistan” that latter government will not make air attacks on GOI Kashmir bases.
- 4.
- There is school of thought in Cabinet which feels military action by GOI is only solution Hyderabad problem and there is always possibility outbreak hostilities. Embassy considers unlikely, however, GOI will initiate military operations for time being. In conversation with Embassy officer July 16, V. P. Menon, Secretary, States Ministry, said although he personally was convinced military solution would be necessary his government felt there was still chance for peaceful settlement and was working toward that end. Embassy agrees with UK High Commissioner that Hyderabad situation has deteriorated markedly past few days.
- 5.
- It would be extremely difficult RIAF intercept night flying planes allegedly running arms between Pakistan and Hyderabad, which could vary their routes from time to time.
While Embassy believes UNCIP should visit Kashmir during its stay in India, it does not see that its presence Kashmir would materially lessen chances open conflict GOI–GOP, or greatly contribute solution Kashmir problem at this time. During stay UNCIP Srinagar, Sheikh Abdullah will attempt prove his overwhelming support by [Page 351] Kashmir people by organizing parades, etc., and will submit evidence atrocities by raiders. Peaceful solution Kashmir problem, if found at all, will be found Delhi and Karachi, and not in visit UNCIP to Srinagar at this time.
Commission plans remain Delhi until all available information is obtained and then proceed Karachi. Commission is exploring possibility which may lead in effect to cessation hostilities and has approached both governments that connection. Commission is endeavoring not to confuse issue of Hyderabad with Kashmir.
M. K. Vellodi, ad hoc Indian liaison officer to Commission, categorically stated to Embassy officer that GOI had no objection to UNCIP visiting Kashmir and would impose no conditions on Commission’s entry.
Regarding GOI attitude to Commission, Embassy feels GOI would sincerely welcome any settlement satisfactory to itself which UNCIP could arrange. Embassy also believes GOI attitude towards Commission has been adequately courteous and helpful. No indication, however, GOI will retreat from its position that present Kashmir difficulties result solely from incursion raiders encouraged if not actually instigated by GOP. Clear-cut evidence presence GOP troops Kashmir, moreover, has resulted hardening Indian attitude and GOI will probably refuse accept any solution suggested by UNCIP which does not voice open approval Indian legal and moral position and clearly recognize Pakistan complicity in present conflict.
Sent Department 583; Department pass London; pouched all offices India, Pakistan.