561.311F1/194: Telegram
The Ambassador in Great Britain (Bingham) to the Secretary of State
[Received August 26, 1933—9:25 a.m.]
252. For Wallace from Murphy. Following is latest proposed draft of exporters agreement which supplements the draft contained in our cable June 30. I am discussing this draft today with Bruce with the slight hope of some favorable modification. The only Argentine representative in Europe authorized to sign will reach London on Monday. As you will see the agreement favors these two countries. Bennett has already initialed it and sailed this morning for Canada.
“While the foregoing statement represents the basis of agreement between the four great exporting countries, the changes which have taken place in the world wheat situation since June 30, 1933, render necessary a series of adjustments.
The main changes in the situation are as follows:
- (1)
- Owing to highest favorable weather conditions in Europe and to reports of good crops of wheat in the extra European importing countries the world demand is now assumed to be 550,000,000 bushels in place of 750,000,000.
- (2)
- The relative failure of crops in North America have resulted in the following changes:
The Canadian crop is now estimated at 300,000,000 bushels which after allowing for domestic requirements leave an exportable surplus of 183,000,000 bushels. The figure of 75,000,000 bushels allowed to meet the requirements of other exporters has to be amended upwards to 100,000,000 bushels.
The 1933 crop in the United States of America is now estimated at 500,000,000 bushels. The estimated surplus stocks in the United States of America are now taken as being 261,000,000 instead of 240,000,000, while those in Canada are taken as being 179,000,000 in place of 140,000,000.
[Page 824]In order to meet the altered situation the four overseas exporting countries are prepared tentatively to adjust their respective allocations in the following ways:
The United States of America will accept an export quota of 47,000,000 bushels being roughly 8½% of the estimated world import demand.
Canada will receive an export allocation of 200,000,000 bushels.
The position in regard to Argentina and Australia is as follows:
These countries have been allotted export quotas for the crop years 1933–34 and 1934–35 of 264,000,000 bushels in the case of Argentina and 255,000,000 bushels in the case of Australia.
Since it is impossible to estimate the actual crops in the Southern Hemisphere for at least 2 months, and since present reports of crop growth are not wholly favorable in either country, Argentina and Australia are prepared to undertake not to export more than for Argentina 110,000,000 bushels and Australia 105,000,000 bushels of the above export quotas prior to July 31, 1934”.
We have had a day and night job to get the draft in its present form and I believe in the main it is the best we can possibly hope for. Judging from the enthusiasm and spirit of the importing countries and some of the exporting countries I believe the performance will far exceed anything indicated in agreements. The importers agreement, which speaks for itself, I shall endeavor to communicate to the Department by telephone this afternoon. [Murphy.]