763.72/12726
The Ambassador in Great Britain (
Davis
) to the Acting Secretary
of State
No. 76
London
, January
6, 1919.
[Received February 4.]
Sir: I have the honor to transmit, herewith
enclosed, for the information of the Department, three (3) copies of a
confidential Memorandum on the Prospects of Order and Ordered Government
in Berlin, which I have just received from the Political Intelligence
Department of the Foreign Office.
It is pointed out clearly in this Report that the political situation
hinges upon the economic; and that the latter is at the present very
menacing. “There seems to be no prospect of improvement until a stable
Government supported by the great majority of the people is formed and
until the raw materials of industry are available in adequate
quantities.” This statement sums up best present conditions in Berlin
and in Germany generally—the keys to the situation are the convocation
of the Constituent Assembly and the resumption of industry.
Consequently, every effort is being made by the de
facto Government to hasten these events. It is to be noted
that, while at present the final decision apparently rests with the
Councils of Workmen and Soldiers, the majorities in these bodies, under
the influence mainly of soldiers are strongly in favor of orderly,
constructive, republican constitutionalism and federalism.
Attention is drawn to the caution with which exaggerated reports of
Bolshevism in the German cities should be received. In a measure, the
tendentious descriptions of the prevailing anarchy, supposed to exist,
which have appeared in French journals may be ascribed to the
preferences of two sections of French opinion. The first of these is
Chauvinist, imperialist and annexationist, without even worldly wisdom.
But the other is afraid of a successful, progressive and really
democratic German Republic. These circumstances must therefore be taken
into account in surveying the reports which emanate from neutral
countries, regarding the internal conditions in Germany.
The Spartacus group led by Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg is not of itself
formidable. It is rather as a permanent point of crystallization for all
discontented and disorderly elements that the group may become
dangerous; and its peril will exist during the transition period between
war and peace. Much depends upon the willingness with which the C. W. S.
D.’s18 will yield their power to [Page 126] the Constituent Assembly, and the
prospects in this regard seem favorable at present. In the final
analysis, however, the preservation of order in Berlin will be brought
about only if the Government uses a firm hand in dealing with anarchical
tendencies. If the Ebert Cabinet is willing to exercise its authority in
an impartial manner, the development of republican Germany can occur in
a healthy and orderly manner.
I have [etc.]
[Enclosure]
Memorandum on the Prospects of Order and Ordered
Government in Berlin
Germany/027
[
London
,] 21
December, 1918.
- 1.
- It is difficult to gather a complete or clear idea of the
political situation in Germany in so far as it can be
distinguished from the economic. That the economic situation is
very menacing admits of no doubt; and there seems to be no
prospect of improvement until a stable Government supported by
the great majority of the people is formed, and until the raw
materials of industry are available in adequate quantities. The
way to a stable Government for the whole of Germany—a Federal
Government of the United States of Germany—lies through the
Constituent Assembly. The meeting of the Congress of Delegates
of Workmen’s and Soldiers’ Councils from all Germany which
opened in the Prussian Chamber on Monday, December 16, resulted
in an overwhelming majority for the Constituent and in the
expression of an eager desire that it should be elected and
should assemble sooner than the previously contemplated date,
February 16. It appears that the Ebert-Haase Government will try
to expedite the elections.
- 2.
- The elections for the Constituent Assemblies of the separate
States are beginning. In Mecklenberg, hitherto the most
reactionary of all the States and without any popular
representation, a large Radical (i. e. Non socialist) majority
has been returned. In Anhalt-Dessau, a partly industrial State,
the majority is moderate Socialist (Ebert and Scheidemann’s
party).
- 3.
- Still leaving the economic situation out of account, there
seems to be clear evidence that the great majorities in the
Workmen’s and Soldiers’ Councils, under the influence mainly of
the soldiers, are strongly in favour of orderly, constructive,
republican constitutionalism and federalism. The idea of a
‘unitarian’ republic with its seat at Berlin has hitherto found
support only in Saxony, and even there it would appear to be
yielding to the general federalist tendency.
- 4.
- Great caution ought to be exercised in the repetition of
reports from neutral countries regarding the strength of the
disintegrating, [Page 127] or
Bolshevist, elements, in the situation. It is noticeable in
particular that the Zürich telegrams to Le
Journal (of Paris) wear a ‘tendentious’ aspect. Those
who supply these telegrams must conceive it to be in the
interest of France that Germany should lapse into a state of
anarchy—for a time at any rate. There are two sections of
opinion in France which incline to this desire. The first is
Chauvinist, imperialist and annexationist, without even worldly
wisdom. It wants as much of Germany on the left bank of the
Rhine as it can get, and does not want Germany ever again to be
come a great European Power. The other section is afraid of a
successful, progressive and really democratic German Republic.
If the Germans succeeded in organizing a Federal Republic on a
really popular basis, and put into the organization of their
democracy all the ability (some would add all the honesty) which
used to characterize their semi-autocratic and wholly
bureaucratic Empire before the war; if they achieved as great
success in organizing Labour in the interest of the masses and
of renewed industrial prosperity, as they achieved in the
commercial and military spheres before the war, the new German
Republic would soon contrast very favourably with France, and,
after due expiation, might regain the good opinion of the world.
For it is too often forgotten that in the ’eighties and early
’nineties, there was almost everywhere a chorus of admiration
for modern Germany, and that not least in England and
America.
- 5.
- Disintegrating and destructive elements undoubtedly exist. The
Spartacus group led by Liebknecht and Rosa Luxemburg would not
of itself be formidable. A man who celebrates the Revolution by
establishing himself in the Berlin Royal Castle and sleeping in
the Kaiser’s bed, as Liebknecht is reported to have done on
November 9, must be nearly as extravagant and theatrical in his
methods as the Kaiser himself. That kind of conduct does not
commend itself to the German working man, who is serious and
argumentative, and is distrustful of extravagances and
eccentricities. It is rather as a permanent point of
crystallization for all discontented and disorderly elements
that the Spartacus group may become dangerous. That is what
happened on Friday, December 6, when a report got abroad
(encouraged by the imprudent overtures of a demonstration of
soldiers outside Ebert’s official residence) that Ebert
contemplated allowing himself to be elevated forthwith to the
Presidency of the Republic. All opinion which really counts at
the moment—that is to say, the opinion which has behind it the
votes of the majority and the arms of the soldiers—is in favour
of two things (1) the General German Constituent Assembly, (2)
the retention of the ultimate authority and the provisional
representation of the nation by the collectivity of the
Workmen’s and Soldiers’ Councils, [Page 128] until the Constituent is elected and a
stable German Federal Government established on the basis of the
Majority of the Constituents’ views.
- 6.
- When it is reported that the Workmen’s and Soldiers’ Councils
will not be willing to surrender power and control after the
Constituent has done its work and has superseded them by
establishing a Government capable of governing, these statements
are based on symptoms and inferences which are not, so far,
convincing. It is quite true that certain elements in the
Councils—a section of the workmen and the more extreme Socialist
leaders like Richard Müller, who signs with Brutus Molkenbuhr
for the Executive Committee of the Berlin Workmen’s and
Soldiers’ Councils—cling to power. They know or fear that the
majority of the Constituent will not be even Socialist in
colour, and they would fain insist that, before the Constituent
assembles and establishes the Federal Republic, the present
holders of power should establish the Socialist state by a
series of decrees in lieu of legislation. It is also true that a
number of members of the Councils cling to their present
positions and the emoluments which they have voted themselves.
On the other hand, it must not be forgotten that, formally, at
least—though there are still frequent irregularities—the Berlin
Councils have divested themselves of executive power, which they
at first claimed and which they were sometimes exercising in a
grotesque enough fashion. Perhaps the Councils, or more or less
irresponsible and arbitrary members of them, are still, here and
there, interfering with the administration. It is reported that
General Scheuch has resigned the portfolio of War because
Socialist officers refused to obey orders, and because one of
his direct subordinates was arrested and kept in prison in spite
of the War Minister’s protests. A representative of the Potsdam
Workmen’s and Soldiers’ Council had also objected to the War
Office appointment of a Commandant for Potsdam, because he
wanted the post himself.
Revolutions cannot be made with rose-water, and manifestations of
this kind will continue unless, or until, the Constituent can
establish a Constitutional Republic and a stable government. Ebert
has declared his desire that the All-German Congress of Workmen’s
and Soldiers’ Councils should “draw a broad line” against increasing
attempts to cripple by means of brutal violence the State and
Communal administrations. But the only remedy for “brutal violence”
is the exercise of superior force. It does not appear that the
Ebert-Haase Government is yet prepared to exercise the force which
the vast majority of the troops now in and about Berlin is ready to
place at their disposal. A successful provisional Government like
the Haase-Ebert “People’s Commission” must be at once [Page 129] disinterested and firm.
The Ebert-Haase combination is evidently unable to overcome its
traditional party repugnance to methods of force, and fears the
groundless charge, which the Spartacus Group bring against it, of
wanting to establish a reactionary personal dictatorship. The force
which suppressed with some bloodshed the Spartacus émeute of Friday, December 6, was not put in action by the
Government. It consisted of troops just home from the front, and now
quartered in the neighbourhood of Berlin. The question whether the
preservation of order, until order is firmly re-established on a
constitutional basis, can be left with any confidence to the orderly
portion of the troops, undirected by the Provisional Government, can
only be decided by the event. The next month or six weeks will
decide the issue between order and anarchy. Much will depend upon
the economic situation, regarding which and its dangers another
report has been presented.
