File No. 861.00/1030
The Minister in Sweden ( Morris) to the Secretary of State
[Received January 30, 10.15 a.m.]
1406. General Judson, chief of the American Military Mission in Russia, has spent two days in Stockholm with me and informs me that the situation in Russia is gradually growing more serious and that, in his opinion, in time the legations and embassies will have to [Page 361]leave Russia, but it is also his view that they should all remain there just as long as is possible so as to prevent the Central powers having open field in Russia. He has made to me and has also drawn up for the use of the War College, the following statement which he asks you to please transmit immediately:
Leaving Russia it seems duty to attempt forecast future based on most careful consideration of [situation] and tendencies.
Bolshevik government will last several, probably six months, until collapse of transportation and economic life of country. Unless we have friendly intercourse with Bolsheviks, not involving recognition, we may lose many chances to serve our own interests and thwart enemy, and our representatives may soon have to quit Russia. Bolsheviks only Russian element likely to be at all hostile to Central powers, as leaders will not compromise. Very many Russians would welcome Germans to preserve private interests and end socialistic régime, due to drastic nature of latter. Recuperative power of Russia through possible efforts well-to-do educated classes experienced in affairs is departing. These classes on the verge of enduring great distress and becoming submerged. Break up of Bolsheviks likely to be accompanied local reigns of terror, especially Petrograd.
Following above, an increased disintegration may be expected, smaller local communities often mutually hostile forming for local protection. German and Austrian assistance will be actively sought by many elements.
Great shock to civilization in Russia is probable and accompanying incidents may be catastrophic.
Restoration of Russia will be enormous world problem which reformation cannot be fully entered upon till Bolsheviks have run their course. Most important thing now is to pursue pacifist policy doing everything to show friendliness and sympathy for all Russian elements in order to lay foundations for future helpfulness and not let Russians feel they must turn to Germany.
If after reference peace question by Trotsky to Soviet military operations should be received [revived], they will be on small scale and in nature friendly but shall [should] be assisted as holding of enemy troops on east front will be worth more than cost.