File No. 861.00/864
The Ambassador in Russia ( Francis) to the Secretary of State
[Received December 26, 1.45 p.m.]
2138. Cabled you week ago of disgust and despair concerning situation. You will recall that from beginning of this revolution I [Page 325] advised waiting for convening action of Constituent Assembly, which was authority acknowledged by Grand Duke Michael, in whose favor Emperor abdicated for himself and son, and the authority looked forward to by the provisional or ad interim Government. That Government was recognized by all Russians and every Allied and neutral as temporary, authorized administrator of Russian affairs until meeting of Constituent Assembly fixed for December 11. On November 8 Provisional Government was overthrown by Bolsheviki through force which Bolsheviki secured by promise of immediate peace and division among soldiers of land and property. Before meeting of Assembly, Bolsheviki declared Cadets counter-revolutionary, removed Assembly commissioners appointed by Bolsheviki, and in other ways prevented convening of Assembly. This is revolution but fact remains that Bolsheviki have maintained themselves in power in Petrograd and Nankeen (Moscow?) and are de facto government in those cities and although there are opposition movements in Ukraine and elsewhere, Bolshevik power is undoubtedly greatest in Russia. I have expected that sober second thought of Russians would establish government which would command recognition and cooperation of Allies and such would eventuate if Russia were not menaced by an adroit and powerful German enemy. Soviet government has run after about seven weeks during which period Germany has made great progress toward again establishing her influence here. German commercial agents are taking orders for German manufactures and preparing to establish direct commercial communication. German emissaries are flattering Soviet government and at the same time encouraging monarchists, bourgeois and especially landowners with the hope of saving their property and preserving Russia from anarchy and division, thus paving the way for German peace. Last Trotsky speech, see my 2134, was intended, I think, to prepare Russia for such peace as all apparently agree that Russia will fight no more. Must confess that I am unable to take issue with such conclusion. Am willing therefore to swallow pride, sacrifice dignity, and with discretion do all that is necessary to prevent Russia’s becoming ally of Germany. It is possible that having accomplished establishing relations with Soviet government Allied representatives could influence terms of peace and thus preserve Russian neutrality, thereby preventing Germany’s acquiring munitions of war stored in Russia; also preventing immense Russian resources’ becoming available by Germany for conflict with Allies.
I have not spoken to colleagues on these lines but am willing to do so if you approve. Such course, mildly speaking, would be exceedingly distasteful but may be advisable. You are better circumstanced [Page 326] than I to keep [judge] effect thereof in the United States. I still believe that we, with assistance of Allies, can defeat Germany even with Russia as her ally, but the cost thereof in blood and treasure would be enormous.
Trotsky’s ambition is to effect world-wide social revolution. President Wilson’s progressive policy has been so farseeing and so wise that such revolution would gain little foothold in America, but I cannot speak for other countries.
If Russia makes peace do you not think would be wise for us to recognize independence of Finland? Would highly appreciate your views on course outlined herein.