File No. 763.72/13320
The Ambassador in Great Britain ( Page ) to the Secretary of State
[Received 3 a.m.]
6109. There is reason for the greatest alarm concerning the issue of the war caused by the increasing success of the German submarines. If the present rate of destruction can be kept up, we shall have soon to contemplate the defeat of Great Britain. At the present rate practically a million tons are being lost every month till the shorter days of autumn come. By that time the sea will be almost cleared of shipping. Most of the ships are sunk west and south of Ireland. The British have in that area every available anti-submarine craft but their whole force is so insufficient that they hardly discourage submarines. It is in this area that the war is in danger of being lost. The British transport of troops and supplies is already strained to the utmost and the maintenance of the armies in the field is threatened. There is food enough here to last the civil population not more than six weeks or two months. Whatever help the United States may render at any time in the future or in any theater of the war, our help is now more seriously needed in this submarine area for the sake of all the Allies than it can ever be needed again or anywhere else.
After discussing this critical situation with the Prime Minister and other members of the Government, I cannot refrain from most strongly recommending the immediate sending of every destroyer and all other craft that can be of anti-submarine use. It seems to [Page 47] me that [this is] the sharpest crisis of the war and the most dangerous situation for the Allies that has arisen or can arise. If enough submarines can be destroyed in the next two or three months, the war will be won; and if we can contribute effective help immediately, it will be won directly by our aid. I cannot exaggerate the pressing and increasing danger of the situation. Thirty our own destroyers and other similar craft sent by us at once would very likely be decisive. There is no time to be lost.