File No. 837.00/1056
Minister Gonzales to the Secretary of State
Habana, January 22, 1917, noon.
Urgent and confidential. Political situation critical and dangerous. Seven weeks ago when the liberals believing that Supreme Court with conservative tendencies would decide against them I did what I could to get the leaders to discountenance revolt and determine to accept judgment of the courts. Supreme Court has now decided against the conservative protests. At that time President Menocal declared to me repeatedly that the courts were the only proper arbitrators, and he was determined rigorously to suppress opposition to their findings and that “there shall not be another revolution in Cuba”. The decision of the court as to Santa Clara Province assures a national liberal victory unless a liberal majority of the 1,164 already established in that province can be overcome in the partial elections to be held about February 12 in only six precincts whose maximum honest vote could not exceed 1,500 with party strength of neither side preponderant.
I find the President bitter against the Supreme Court and having mental attitude that as a natural consequence Supreme Court in throwing out conservative contests practically indorsed frauds by the liberals, his party cannot be restrained from exerting every effort and using the vote in these six precincts to overcome the established majority. This means employment of force, killing of liberal managers at the polls and declaration of palpably fictitious result. This would cause, in my opinion, revolution of much more bitterness and more difficult of solution than that of 1906. Destruction of cane plantations would be extensive. Personally sympathizing with President Menocal’s reelection, his success by such methods, even without a revolution, would be an enduring calamity to Cuba. I do not believe majority of the cabinet or the party leaders advocate extreme measures to win election. Shall keep in close touch and hope for change in attitude of President but would like Department’s judgment.