File No. 812.00/2219.
The American Ambassador to the Secretary of State.
Mexico, July 11, 1911.
My Dear Mr. Knox: The fears expressed in my confidential dispatches of May 231 and May 311 that the situation which had been created by the success of the revolutionary movement of Mr. Madero might lead to a permanent disrespect for constituted authority and to a disturbance of established administrative methods have been to a considerable extent justified by the events which have been occurring throughout the Republic during the last 30 days and by the general discontent which prevails among all classes at the present moment.
In certain extensive parts of the Republic, notably the States of Guerrero, Sinaloa, Morelos, Puebla, Oaxaca, Vera Cruz, and Durango, conditions closely approaching anarchy prevail. In other parts of the Republic the Federal authorities are nominally in control, but even in those States where there is a considerable measure of Federal authority there yet exist numerous and frequent isolated cases of defiance of the law, of disregard for authority, of lack of respect for property rights, of violence and rapine. In some of the States which I have mentioned there have been as many as a half dozen governors in the short space of time which has elapsed since the fall of the Diaz Government, and it is not an uncommon thing for two, three, and even four governors to claim the exercise of executive functions in a single State at the same time. The same conflict of authority exists in a diminishing circle from the governor down to [Page 509] the pettiest local official, and it may be readily understood that the effect on public confidence in the localities where the evils exist is great and that the general apprehension created throughout the Republic is profound.
In addition to those conditions, serious enough in themselves, the economic situation steadily grows worse, and unless the Government shows greater firmness and more energy in meeting the difficulties which have arisen and are arising, instead of endeavoring to placate the, in many cases, fantastic demands of the industrial workers, there can be little hope of improvement. From one end of the Republic to the other—in the cities, in the mines, and on the plantations—the laboring classes have quit work and are making demands, in many cases accompanied by violence, for increases in wages and decreases in the hours of labor, which it is entirely beyond the power of the employing class to meet.
In many localities, too, whole communities are refusing to pay State and Federal taxes, claiming that it was part of the program of the revolution that the poor should be freed from the burden of taxation. There are many cases, too, where estates, to the title of which there is no question, have been forcibly taken possession of by large bodies of poor people, in the belief that the revolution had annulled all old titles and that the lands were to be restored to the people in common holding. It may readily be imagined that it will require energy, wisdom, and united councils to bring about the cure of the evils growing out of deluded opinions, misinterpretation of the idea of liberty, and the exaggerated pretensions of a laboring class which has suffered much injustice in the past, but which now seems incapable of dealing with its opportunities in a rational and practical way. If Mr. Madero shall not prove himself equal to dealing with this emergency, and if the conditions of lawlessness, violence, evil and conflicting administration, of general unrest and division in councils continue, the success of the nominal chief of the revolution in the October elections may hardly be placed beyond the possibility of conjecture or doubt. The political situation becomes more complicated every day and new and various party alignments, not yet clearly defined, appear to be taking place. It appears to be clear that a formidable opposition, partly public and partly secret, is springing up against Mr. Madero and that there is a gradual but distinct weakening of the ties which have connected him with some of his former strongest and most enthusiastic supporters. The cause of this discontent within the Maderist ranks is said be a growing conviction that that leader lacks in that decision of character, uniformity of policy, and close insight into situations which is so essential to leaders among men everywhere, but which is of especial need in Mexico in dealing with the abnormal conditions which prevail here. To begin with, the army is dissatisfied and almost openly disloyal, thus placing in question practically the only safeguard which exists at this moment against turbulence and lawlessness; then the Roman Catholic Church and the party which takes its name have become violently antagonistic to Madero and are busily engaged throughout the Republic in aspersing his motives, decrying his policies, and censuring the weakness and vacillation which is supposed to characterize his direction of affairs; then there are the remnants [Page 510] of the old Cientifico Party—a party which is dispersed and discredited, but which, nevertheless, represents the wealth, the culture, and the historical traditions of Mexico—which will gladly add their support to any cause which seems likely to restore them, even in a moderate way, to the positions and the power they once enjoyed; then there is the large element of young and progressive politicians—usually close imitators of American ideas—which at first welcomed Madero as the destroyer of abuses, but which is now beginning to look upon him as a dreamer and false prophet; and, finally, there are large elements of the poorer classes who expected a new millennium with the advent of Madero and may now be easily influenced by any leader willing to promise them the fulfillment of the promises which they believed were made by Madero. Whether all these elements can be welded into a compact opposition under some such leader as Reyes may be esteemed doubtful, but the importance of their existence is shown in the fact that their opposition has become manifest and is growing in strength within 60 days after the triumph of the revolution.
I have met Mr. Madero upon several occasions and have endeavored to form some opinion of his character. He is insignificant in appearance, of diffident manners, and hesitating in speech, and seems to be highly nervous and uncertain as to his course in regard to many important public questions. He has, however, one redeeming feature—a pair of excellent eyes, which indicate to me earnestness, truthfulness and loyalty, and, it may be, reserves of strength of force of character which time may more fully reveal.
An excellent idea of his character as a thinker and a patriot may be formed from the reading of his book entitled “The-Presidential Succession of 1910,” which more than anything else was the cause of the revolution.1 A translation into English of this book is now being made by my son, and I hope within the next week to be able to transmit a copy for the use of the President and the Department. It treats extensively of the system of government which had grown up under Diaz and of its abuses, of the history and the characters of many leading Mexicans, and of the theories and aspirations of Madero.
I am [etc.],