58. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1
Libya-Tunisia: What are Qadhafi’s Intentions
Summary
The Libyan expulsion of Tunisian workers—26,000 so far this month—threatens Tunis with its most serious domestic crisis since the January 1984 bread riots.2 Qadhafi probably is using the expulsion in part to cover the infiltration of Libyan trained Tunisian dissidents.3 We believe he will use the dissidents to help destabilize Tunisia and influence the Presidential succession when Bourguiba dies. The return of large numbers of workers will ripen the climate for destabilization by adding to an already record pool of urban unemployed. Even while Bourguiba is alive, Qadhafi probably will try to intimidate Tunis into a more pro-Libyan posture, perhaps using terrorist attacks or a small-scale military demonstration near the border. Tunisian fears of a Libyan invasion, however, are unwarranted for the present. [portion marking not declassified]
We believe that Tunisia has exaggerated the threat of an imminent Libyan invasion, but its fears of Libyan-sponsored destabilization are well founded. A key unknown involves the extent to which Libya’s accelerated two-year effort to build a subversive network has succeeded in developing assets in the Tunisian armed forces. [portion marking not declassified]
[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]
- Source: Washington National Records Center, OSD Files, FRC 330–87–0008, 1985 Official Records (Secret & Below) of the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense, and the Executive Secretary to the Secretary and Deputy Secretary of Defense, Box 1, Tunisia 1985. Secret; [handling restrictions not declassified]. Prepared in the Maghreb Branch, Arab-Israeli Division, Office of Near Eastern Analysis, based on information received as of August 27.↩
- See footnotes 2 and 4, Document 329.↩
- See footnote 2, Document 312.↩