359. Intelligence Memorandum Prepared in the Central Intelligence Agency1

NESA M 88–20032

TUNISIA: HIGH MARKS FOR BEN ALI’S PERFORMANCE [portion marking not declassified]

Summary

The government of Tunisian President Zine el-Abidine Ben Ali is stable after four months in power, and the prospects are good that Ben Ali will consolidate his position. The public disorder and disruptive political maneuvering that marked the last days of the Bourguiba era have dissipated. Ben Ali is pursuing the market-oriented structural adjustment program adopted by the previous government and is gradually introducing reforms that will allow greater political freedom. Tunis also wants close ties with Washington as a complement to its efforts to deflect pressure from Algeria and Libya. [portion marking not declassified]

Ben Ali has performed well in his political honeymoon period; his willingness to open up the political process and ability to invigorate the economy will now come under close scrutiny. He has yet to decide on the status of the Islamic fundamentalists or the proper role of organized labor—potentially the most powerful political groups in the country. There also are signs of intra-regime friction about how to create jobs and sustain economic growth. These problems will persist for years to come. [portion marking not declassified]

[Omitted here is the body of the memorandum.]

  1. Source: Reagan Library, Frank Carlucci Papers (SecDef), Subject: Meetings 3/18/88. Secret; [handling restrictions not declassified]. Prepared in the Office of Near East/South Asia Analysis.