112. Paper Prepared in the Department of State1
REPORT TO THE PRESIDENT
The Basic Negotiating Problem
• British have for years totally frustrated Argentine efforts to expand their role in the Falklands or to negotiate a shift of sovereignty. Now Argentines want one or the other: guarantee of sovereignty by the end of the year or de facto control now.
• For the British, the key is to ensure the Islanders can determine their own future: a matter of both principle and politics.
• This negotiation is a clash between these interests. British insistence on self-determination excludes guarantee of Argentine sovereignty. And British fear that greater de facto Argentine role will allow mainlanders to swamp the Islanders.
Politics in the Two Countries
• Galtieri has whipped up public emotions and now is their hostage. Peronist movement getting stronger. Navy Chief wants war, for glory (win or lose), and is a threat to Galtieri. Nevertheless, Argentines getting nervous and know that war would be ruinous.
• Thatcher was jolted by criticism for allowing the crisis to occur, and has therefore had to limit her own flexibility by her pledge to Parliament and commitment to military action. Brits are basically united, but their perseverence is suspect.
• Neither leader—or nation—wants war. But neither can back down militarily or accept a defeat through negotiations.
[Page 235]Status of the Negotiations
• Thatcher has conceded change from the status quo ante. She has agreed to: (1) place local British administration under tripartite commission; (2) an Argentine flag; (3) provisions for expanded Argentine interaction with the Islanders; (4) December 31, 1982, deadline. (Text at Tab A)
• Argentine demand for either de facto control or guarantee of sovereignty sets up cross-play between Articles 5/6 and Article 8.
• Argentines’ demands may be wavering—hard to tell given erratic behavior of GOA. They’ve floated the idea of decolonization—meaning that they might not insist on Argentine sovereignty if they can at least exclude British sovereignty. This would fit with a more subtle strategy of weakening the British link and expanding their de facto role as a way to secure eventual control. (Tab B)
Our Strategy
• Work with decolonization concept but not the word, while protecting self-determination. At the same time, loosen up provisions for expanded Argentine interim role.
• Convince Brits of the need to let events take a natural historical course—i.e., give Argentines a chance to work out a relationship with the Islanders.
• Convince the Argentines that we will use our decisive vote on the commission to help expand their role.
Prospects
• Keep the process going. The British would rather have us play this role than join in sanctions. Their suspicions about us are gone.
• Keep the threat of break-off hanging over the Argentines. They cannot afford to be blamed and further isolated.
Timing
• Optimal time for agreement is toward the end of next week. Before then, Thatcher won’t stop her fleet; Galtieri won’t sign unless the fleet is stopped. After then, the proximity of forces increases sharply the possibility of hostilities.
• Need to crack the main issues this weekend. Must leave for Buenos Aires on Thursday night.2
[Page 236]- Source: Department of State, Executive Secretariat, S/S Special Handling Restrictions Memos 1979–1983, Lot 96D262, Super Sensitive April 1–30 1982. Secret. No drafting information appears on the paper. In the upper right hand corner of the first page, a note in an unknown hand reads: “6:30 pm, 4/13/82.” Rentschler forwarded the paper to Clark under an April 14 covering note, stating that Clark might find it useful for his 9:30 a.m. briefing for Reagan. Rentschler added: “A longer-range problem, should this mission fail, will be the stance we adopt with our principal ally, particularly as regards the President’s trip to London in June. At this point, however, the focus is much more immediate, and with luck we won’t have to address the other problem.” (Reagan Library, Executive Secretariat, NSC Country File, Latin America/Central, Falklands War (04/09/1982–04/15/1982) According to the President’s Daily Diary, Clark met with Bush and Reagan for a national security briefing from 9:30 to 9:45 a.m., April 14. Reagan then met with Haig, Carlucci, Baker, Meese, and Clark in the Oval Office from 9:45 to 10:05 a.m. (Reagan Library, President’s Daily Diary) No memorandum of conversation of either meeting has been found.↩
- April 15.↩
- Secret; Sensitive.↩
- No classification marking.↩
- See footnote 2, Document 105.↩